full time
Croatia2–1Ghana
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · 69,796 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Croatia to win
sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1982+22 this year
1960 → 1982 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
11thheld on the latest list
10th → 11th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1619+22 this year
1597 → 1619 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
73rdup 1 place on the latest list
72nd → 73rd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Croatia by 363 points
How we got hereWe make Croatia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +256 edge into 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Croatia
1.8
expected goals
Ghana
0.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–012 in 100
- 1–112 in 100
- 2–011 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Croatia 43 in 100, Ghana 17 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Croatia win at home.✓ right
- Croatia win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Croatia keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Croatia4-2-3-1
- 1Dominik LivakovićG1699
- 2Josip StanišićD2060
- 6Josip ŠutaloD1688
- 3Marin PongračićD1797
- 14Ivan PerišićD1816
- 10Luka ModrićM1775
- 8Mateo KovačićM1955
- 13Nikola VlašićM1718
- 17Petar SučićM1968
- 16Martin BaturinaM1872
- 11Ante BudimirF1782
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 23Dominik KotarskiG1675
- 12Ivor PandurG~1656 provisional
- 5Duje Ćaleta-CarD1811
- 4Joško GvardiolD2003
- 22Luka VuškovićD1732
- 25Martin ErlićD1783
- 18Kristijan JakićM1739
- 21Luka SučićM1791
- 24Marco PašalićF1623
- 15Mario PašalićM1623
- 7Nikola MoroM1755
- 19Toni FrukM1652
- 9Andrej KramarićF1788
- 20Igor MatanovićF1816
- 26Petar MusaF1655
Ghana4-3-3
- 16Benjamin AsareG1550
- 26Marvin SenayaD1538
- 4Jonas Adjei AdjeteyD1624
- 23Derrick LuckassenD1591
- 14Gideon MensahD1578
- 5Thomas ParteyM1743
- 15Elisha OwusuM1540
- 8Kwasi SiboM1607
- 22Kamaldeen SulemanaF1777
- 9Jordan AyewF1569
- 11Antoine SemenyoF1969
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Lawrence Ati ZigiG1567
- 12Joseph AnangG~1525 provisional
- 2Alidu SeiduD1576
- 6Abdul MuminD1730
- 17Rahman BabaD1560
- 18Jerome OpokuD1590
- 21Kojo Peprah OppongD1589
- 3Caleb YirenkyiM1569
- 7Abdul Fatawu IssahakuF1566
- 13Christopher BaahF1640
- 19Iñaki WilliamsF1735
- 20Augustine BoakyeM1571
- 10Brandon Thomas-AsanteF1661
- 24Ernest NuamahF1745
- 25Prince Kwabena AduF1557
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 20:06:31 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 31'P. Sucicgoalassist M. Kovacic
- 46'K. Peprah for J. Adjeteysub
- 46'I. Fatawu for E. Owususub
- 66'I. Matanovic for A. Budimirsub
- 71'B. Thomas-Asante for J. Ayewsub
- 71'E. Nuamah for K. Sulemanasub
- 73'D. Luckassengoalassist E. Nuamah
- 78'M. Pasalic for M. Kovacicsub
- 83'N. Vlasicgoalassist L. Modric
- 85'C. Yirenkyi for K. Sibosub
- 88'M. Pasalic for M. Baturinasub
- 88'J. Gvardiol for N. Vlasicsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:58:57 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Croatia 2-1 Ghana
- Verdict
- right but lucky
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Croatia to win at 64%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Croatia 2-1 Ghana: the Croatia win, an outcome we had at 64 in 100.
The call landed, but the claims underneath it mostly did not. We count that as lucky, not vindicated, the result flatters the reasoning, and the scorecard above keeps the receipts. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Croatia win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Croatia keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Croatia +11 and Ghana -11.
On our player board, the squads moved Croatia +48 (14 appearances) · Ghana -74 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +256 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 64/21/15 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Croatia · 64%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Croatia v Ghana before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.