Skip to content
Tue 23 Jun · 23:00 UTC · Wed 01:00 CEST · Group L

full time

Panama0–1Croatia

1852+22rating1982+2234thdown 1fifa11th
J. Gutiérrez1601talismanJ. Stanisic2060

BMO Field, Toronto · 45,736 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Croatia to win

home 24%draw 25%away 51% ✓

sealed Sun 21 Jun · 19:20 UTC · 21:20 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Sun, 21 Jun 2026 19:20:47 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Panama

ProofXI rating

1852+22 this year

1830 → 1852 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

34thdown 1 place on the latest list

30th → 34th · 6 lists

Croatia

ProofXI rating

1982+22 this year

1960 → 1982 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

11thheld on the latest list

10th → 11th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Croatia by 130 points

How we got hereWe make Croatia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Panama rating edge-133
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-133

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -133 edge into 24% / 25% / 51% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Panama

1.1

expected goals

Croatia

1.5

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–111 in 100
  • 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–29 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Panama 21 in 100, Croatia 35 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Croatia win on the road.✓ right
  • No blowout: Croatia win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Panama3-4-3

  1. 22Orlando MosqueraG1571
  2. 13Jiovany RamosD1577
  3. 3José CórdobaD1630
  4. 16Andrés AndradeD1581
  5. 23Amir MurilloM1595
  6. 14Carlos HarveyM1563
  7. 11Yoel BárcenasM1533
  8. 2César BlackmanM1589
  9. 6Cristian MartínezF~1555 provisional
  10. 17José FajardoF1547
  11. 7José Luis RodríguezF1541

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Croatia4-2-3-1

  1. 1Dominik LivakovićG1699
  2. 2Josip StanišićD2060
  3. 6Josip ŠutaloD1688
  4. 3Marin PongračićD1797
  5. 4Joško GvardiolD2003
  6. 10Luka ModrićM1775
  7. 8Mateo KovačićM1955
  8. 24Marco PašalićM1623
  9. 16Martin BaturinaM1872
  10. 14Ivan PerišićM1816
  11. 26Petar MusaF1655

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 22:22:33 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 46'A. Budimir for P. Musasub
  2. 46'A. Kramaric for J. Gvardiolsub
  3. 54'A. Budimirgoalassist J. Stanisic
  4. 72'L. Sucic for M. Pasalicsub
  5. 72'P. Sucic for M. Kovacicsub
  6. 77'C. Waterman for J. Ramossub
  7. 81'M. Pasalic for L. Modricsub
  8. 83'A. Londono for J. Fajardosub
  9. 90'E. Davis for C. Blackmansub
  10. 90'T. Rodriguez for Y. Barcenassub

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:21:17 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Panama 0-1 Croatia

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Croatia to win at 51%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Panama 0-1 Croatia: the Croatia win, an outcome we had at 51 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Panama -19 and Croatia +19.

On our player board, the squads moved Panama -27 (10 appearances) · Croatia +21 (11 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -133 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 24/25/51 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Croatia · 51%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Panama v Croatia before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.