full time
Argentina3–0Algeria
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · 76,416 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Argentina to win
sealed Mon 15 Jun · 20:49 UTC · 22:49 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:49:12 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2186-25 this year
2211 → 2186 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
1stup 2 places on the latest list
2nd → 1st · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1857+40 this year
1817 → 1857 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
28thheld on the latest list
34th → 28th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Argentina by 329 points
Head to head
Argentina have had the better of this fixture.
2 prior meetings · Argentina 2, drawn 0, Algeria 0 · goals 7-3
- 2026Argentina 3-0 Algeria· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2007Algeria 3-4 Argentina· Friendly· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Argentina the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +304 edge into 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Argentina
1.8
expected goals
Algeria
0.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–013 in 100
- 2–012 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Argentina 46 in 100, Algeria 16 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Argentina win at home.✓ right
- Argentina win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Argentina keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Argentina4-3-3
- 23Emiliano MartínezG1995
- 4Gonzalo MontielD1901
- 13Cristian RomeroD1879
- 6Lisandro MartínezD2033
- 25Facundo MedinaD1858
- 20Alexis Mac AllisterM2017
- 24Enzo FernándezM1898
- 7Rodrigo De PaulM1979
- 10Lionel MessiF2108
- 22Lautaro MartínezF1918
- 16Thiago AlmadaM1924
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Juan MussoG1881
- 12Gerónimo RulliG1854
- 3Nicolás TagliaficoD1854
- 19Nicolás OtamendiD1937
- 26Nahuel MolinaD1944
- 2Marcos SenesiDunrated
- 5Leandro ParedesM1824
- 8Valentín BarcoM1889
- 11Giovani Lo CelsoM1928
- 14Exequiel PalaciosM1972
- 15Nicolás GonzálezF1913
- 17Giuliano SimeoneF1925
- 18Nico PazF1888
- 9Julián AlvarezF1955
- 21José Manuel LópezF1900
Algeria4-4-2
- 23Luca ZidaneG1566
- 17Rafik BelghaliD1582
- 2Aïssa MandiD1742
- 21Ramy BensebainiD1867
- 15Rayan Aït-NouriD1962
- 11Anis Hadj MoussaF1683
- 14Hicham BoudaouiM1652
- 19Nabil BentalebM1764
- 10Farès ChaïbiF1723
- 22Ibrahim MazaM1873
- 9Amine GouiriF1779
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Melvin MastilG~1563 provisional
- 16Oussama BenbotG1571
- 3Achref AbadaD1594
- 4Mohamed TougaiD1578
- 5Zineddine BelaidD1612
- 13Jaouen HadjamD1599
- 26Samir Sophian CherguiD1713
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM1656
- 8Houssem AouarM1614
- 24Yassine TitraouiM1594
- 7Riyad MahrezF1636
- 20Adil BoulbinaF1579
- 12Ahmed Nadhir BenboualiF1584
- 18Mohamed AmouraF1653
- 25Farès GhedjemisF1568
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:21:25 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 17'L. Messigoalassist R. de Paul
- 46'N. Molina for G. Montielsub
- 55'J. Alvarez for L. Martinezsub
- 55'N. Gonzalez for T. Almadasub
- 60'L. Messigoal
- 64'H. Aouar for H. Boudaouisub
- 64'M. Amoura for A. Gouirisub
- 64'R. Mahrez for A. Hadj Moussasub
- 76'L. Messigoalassist N. Gonzalez
- 80'N. Paz for L. Messisub
- 80'N. Otamendi for C. Romerosub
- 81'A. Boulbina for N. Bentalebsub
- 82'R. Zerrouki for I. Mazasub
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 03:20:58 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Argentina 3-0 Algeria
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Argentina to win at 68%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Argentina 3-0 Algeria: the Argentina win, an outcome we had at 68 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Argentina +13 and Algeria -13.
On our player board, the squads moved Argentina +110 (16 appearances) · Algeria -122 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +304 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 68/20/12 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Argentina · 68%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Argentina v Algeria before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.