Julián Álvarez

Club football at Club Atlético de Madrid.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
25
sourced with the squad
position
Offence
Argentina
club
Club Atlético de Madrid
football-data.org
club tier
1828
ClubElo strength
our board
#110
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
2375′
37 appearances
npxG + xA per 90
0.31
81th percentile of peers

Sourced

squad: Argentina · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: Club Atlético de Madridfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1952 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1955 full roster Elo (+3 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1962 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the offence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Argentina's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1917
age curve at 25 (offences' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior: -7
attacking output, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +41
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1952
form: national-team results, 37 appearances2375 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +3
full roster Elo · with results: 1955

Where the +41 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 0.31 npxG + xA per 90
his rank: 81th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the open StatsBomb archive, every shot scored by our own xG model
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(81.5th) = 46 × 0.90 = +41

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-28. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#110 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€17m–€66m ≈ €33m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 1828the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×3.13
ageage 25, in the fee-peak window (24–27): ×1.00
attacker fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×1.00
individual skillmeasured 81th percentile of peers: ×1.46
our estimate: ≈ €33m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €75m (2024-08). Our estimate today: ≈ €33m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: richly priced , we rate him 55% below his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

2024-08-12Manchester City → Atletico Madrid€75m
2022-07-08River Plate → Manchester Cityundisclosed
2022-01-31Manchester City → River Plateloan
2022-01-30River Plate → Manchester City€17m

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Argentina’s record

at Jordan1–3Called it
v Austria2–0Called it
v Algeria3–0Called it

The newsroom’s calls on Argentina. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.