full time
Belgium0–0Iran
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · 70,240 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Belgium to win
sealed Fri 19 Jun · 19:30 UTC · 21:30 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Fri, 19 Jun 2026 19:30:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1945+19 this year
1926 → 1945 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
9thheld on the latest list
8th → 9th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1896-38 this year
1934 → 1896 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
20thup 1 place on the latest list
20th → 20th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Belgium by 49 points
How we got hereWe make Belgium the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +68 edge into 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Belgium
1.4
expected goals
Iran
1.2
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–010 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Belgium 31 in 100, Iran 24 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Belgium win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Belgium win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Belgium4-2-3-1
- 1Thibaut CourtoisG1997
- 15Thomas MeunierD1839
- 25Nathan NgoyD1838
- 4Brandon MecheleD1895
- 5Maxim De CuyperD1892
- 23Nicolas RaskinM1673
- 8Youri TielemansM2003
- 22Alexis SaelemaekersM1825
- 7Kevin De BruyneM1863
- 10Leandro TrossardM2075
- 9Romelu LukakuF1905
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Senne LammensG2058
- 13Mike PendersG1797
- 16Koni De WinterD1823
- 3Arthur TheateD1786
- 18Joaquin SeysD1886
- 21Timothy CastagneD1894
- 6Axel WitselM1719
- 19Diego MoreiraF1778
- 20Hans VanakenM1888
- 24Amadou OnanaM1950
- 14Dodi LukebakioF1928
- 17Charles De KetelaereF1855
- 26Matías Fernández-PardoF1812
Iran5-4-1
- 1Alireza BeiranvandG1629
- 2Saleh HardaniD1595
- 13Hossein KanaaniD1615
- 4Shoja KhalilzadehD1589
- 19Ali NematiD~1597 provisional
- 3Ehsan HajsafiD1569
- 23Ramin RezaeianM1587
- 14Saman GhoddosM1595
- 6Saeid EzatolahiM1588
- 8Mohammad MohebiM1560
- 9Mehdi TaremiF1698
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Payam NiazmandG~1596 provisional
- 22Hossein HosseiniG1604
- 5Milad MohammadiD1606
- 25Danial EiriD~1562 provisional
- 15Roozbeh CheshmiM1563
- 17Aria YousefiD1579
- 21Mohammad GhorbaniM1594
- 26Amirmohammad RazzaghiniaM~1575 provisional
- 10Mehdi GhayediFunrated
- 7Alireza JahanbakhshF1455
- 16Mahdi TorabiM1573
- 11Ali AlipourF1601
- 18Amirhossein HosseinzadehF1603
- 20Shahriar MoghanlouF1592
- 24Dennis Eckert AyensaF1648
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 21 Jun 2026 18:24:24 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'A. Jahanbakhsh for S. Hardanisub
- 58'T. Castagne for T. Meuniersub
- 58'H. Vanaken for N. Raskinsub
- 58'D. Lukebakio for A. Saelemaekerssub
- 66'M. Mohammadi for E. Hajsafisub
- 66'M. Torabi for M. Mohebisub
- 73'A. Theate for R. Lukakusub
- 79'S. Moghanlou for S. Ghoddossub
- 85'A. Hosseinzadeh for S. Ezatolahisub
- 87'M. Fernandez-Pardo for K. De Bruynesub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 21 Jun 2026 21:21:23 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Belgium 0-0 Iran
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Belgium to win at 44%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Belgium 0-0 Iran: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Belgium win at home.
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Belgium -6 and Iran +6.
On our player board, the squads moved Belgium -40 (16 appearances) · Iran +70 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +68 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 44/26/30 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Belgium · 44%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Belgium v Iran before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.