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Sat 20 Jun · 20:00 UTC · 22:00 CEST · Group E

full time

Germany2–1Ivory Coast

1999-34rating1796+8710thfifa33rdup 1
K. Havertz2208talismanA. Diallo1972

BMO Field, Toronto · 45,736 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Germany to win

home 54% ✓draw 24%away 22%

sealed Thu 18 Jun · 20:15 UTC · 22:15 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:15:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Germany

ProofXI rating

1999-34 this year

2033 → 1999 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

10thheld on the latest list

9th → 10th · 6 lists

Ivory Coast

ProofXI rating

1796+87 this year

1709 → 1796 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

33rdup 1 place on the latest list

42nd → 33rd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Germany by 203 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and it finished level.

1 prior meeting · Germany 0, drawn 1, Ivory Coast 0 · goals 2-2

  1. 2009Germany 2-2 Ivory Coast· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Germany the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Germany rating edge+157
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+157

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +157 edge into 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Germany

1.6

expected goals

Ivory Coast

1.0

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–011 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–09 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Germany 36 in 100, Ivory Coast 20 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Germany win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: Germany win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Germany4-2-3-1

  1. 1Manuel NeuerG2056
  2. 6Joshua KimmichD2094
  3. 4Jonathan TahD2056
  4. 15Nico SchlotterbeckD2026
  5. 18Nathaniel BrownD1803
  6. 23Felix NmechaM2004
  7. 5Aleksandar PavlovićM1998
  8. 19Leroy SanéM1796
  9. 10Jamal MusialaM2124
  10. 17Florian WirtzM2031
  11. 7Kai HavertzF2208

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Ivory Coast4-4-2

  1. 1Yahia FofanaG1629
  2. 5Wilfried SingoD1770
  3. 7Odilon KossounouD1829
  4. 20Emmanuel AgbadouD1634
  5. 3Ghislain KonanD1630
  6. 15Amad DialloM1972
  7. 8Franck KessiéM1687
  8. 18Ibrahim SangaréM1889
  9. 11Yan DiomandeM1847
  10. 9Ange-Yoan BonnyF1893
  11. 26Christ Inao OulaïF1636

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 19:21:08 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 30'F. Kessiegoal
  2. 46'A. Rudiger for N. Schlotterbecksub
  3. 60'J. Leweling for L. Sanesub
  4. 60'D. Undav for J. Musialasub
  5. 60'N. Amiri for A. Pavlovicsub
  6. 68'D. Undavgoalassist N. Amiri
  7. 75'E. Guessand for A. Bonnysub
  8. 75'S. Fofana for I. Sangaresub
  9. 75'S. Adingra for A. Diallosub
  10. 82'G. Doue for W. Singosub
  11. 85'N. Pepe for Y. Diomandesub
  12. 85'L. Goretzka for K. Havertzsub
  13. 90+4'D. Undavgoalassist F. Nmecha

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 23:03:34 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed Germany to win at 54%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast: the Germany win, an outcome we had at 54 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Germany +17 and Ivory Coast -17.

On our player board, the squads moved Germany +48 (16 appearances) · Ivory Coast -38 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +157 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 54/24/22 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Germany · 54%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Germany v Ivory Coast before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.