full time
Brazil3–0Haiti
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · 69,796 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Brazil to win
sealed Thu 18 Jun · 20:15 UTC · 22:15 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:15:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2064-3 this year
2067 → 2064 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
6thheld on the latest list
5th → 6th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1684-25 this year
1709 → 1684 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
83rdheld on the latest list
84th → 83rd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Brazil by 380 points
Head to head
Brazil have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · Brazil 4, drawn 0, Haiti 0 · goals 20-1
- 2026Brazil 3-0 Haiti· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2016Brazil 7-1 Haiti· Copa América· neutral
- 2004Haiti 0-6 Brazil· Friendly
- 1974Brazil 4-0 Haiti· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Brazil the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +381 edge into 74% / 17% / 8% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Brazil
1.9
expected goals
Haiti
0.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 2–014 in 100
- 1–014 in 100
- 1–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–19 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Brazil 52 in 100, Haiti 14 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Brazil win at home.✓ right
- Brazil win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Brazil keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Brazil4-2-3-1
- 1AlissonG1986
- 13DaniloD1919
- 4MarquinhosD2085
- 3Gabriel MagalhãesD2142
- 16Douglas SantosD1688
- 8Bruno GuimarãesM2004
- 5CasemiroM2066
- 11RaphinhaM2109
- 20Lucas PaquetáM1975
- 7Vinícius JúniorM2092
- 9Matheus CunhaF2084
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12WevertonG1807
- 23EdersonG1844
- 6Alex SandroD1971
- 14BremerD1922
- 15Léo PereiraD1960
- 24Roger IbañezD1739
- 17FabinhoM1876
- 21Luiz HenriqueF1762
- 2ÉdersonM1844
- 18Danilo SantosM1890
- 26RayanF2025
- 19EndrickF1771
- 22Gabriel MartinelliF2149
- 25Igor ThiagoF1921
Haiti5-4-1
- 1Johny PlacideG1479
- 2Carlens ArcusD1591
- 4Ricardo AdéD1603
- 22Jean-Kévin DuverneD1582
- 5Hannes DelcroixD1535
- 8Martin ExpérienceD1526
- 21Josué CasimirM1500
- 17Danley Jean JacquesM1505
- 10Jean-Ricner BellegardeM1673
- 15Ruben ProvidenceM1511
- 20Frantzdy PierrotF1528
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Alexandre PierreG~1505 provisional
- 23Josué DuvergerG~1516 provisional
- 3Keeto ThermoncyD~1511 provisional
- 13Duke LacroixD1535
- 14Garven-Michee MetusalaDunrated
- 24Wilguens PaugainD1545
- 6Carl Fred SaintéM~1537 provisional
- 25Dominique SimonM1536
- 26Woodensky PierreM~1524 provisional
- 7Derrick EtienneF1521
- 9Duckens NazonF1546
- 11Louicius Don DeedsonF1536
- 16Lenny JosephF1510
- 18Wilson IsidorF1839
- 19Yassin FortuneF1531
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:01:53 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 23'M. Cunhagoal
- 36'M. Cunhagoalassist Vinicius Junior
- 40'Rayan for Raphinhasub
- 45+3'Vinicius Juniorgoalassist Lucas Paqueta
- 46'D. Simon for C. Arcussub
- 46'W. Isidor for F. Pierrotsub
- 63'L. Deedson for J. Casimirsub
- 64'G. Martinelli for Lucas Paquetasub
- 64'Endrick for M. Cunhasub
- 71'L. Joseph for R. Providencesub
- 81'Danilo Santos for Vinicius Juniorsub
- 81'Ederson for Bruno Guimaraessub
- 81'D. Etienne for J. Bellegardesub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 02:33:01 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Brazil 3-0 Haiti
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Brazil to win at 74%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Brazil 3-0 Haiti: the Brazil win, an outcome we had at 74 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Brazil +9 and Haiti -9.
On our player board, the squads moved Brazil +35 (16 appearances) · Haiti -76 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +381 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 74/17/8 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Brazil · 74%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Brazil v Haiti before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.