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Wed 24 Jun · 19:00 UTC · 21:00 CEST · Group B

full time

Switzerland2–1Canada

1962+77rating1892+1119thfifa30th
M. Akanji1925talismanA. Davies1938

BC Place, Vancouver · 54,500 seats

Missed it. It stays up.

Honours even

home 29% ✓draw 52%away 19%

sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:46:42 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Switzerland

ProofXI rating

1962+77 this year

1885 → 1962 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

19thheld on the latest list

17th → 19th · 6 lists

Canada

ProofXI rating

1892+11 this year

1881 → 1892 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

30thheld on the latest list

27th → 30th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Switzerland by 70 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and Canada took it.

1 prior meeting · Switzerland 0, drawn 0, Canada 1 · goals 1-3

  1. 2002Switzerland 1-3 Canada· Friendly

source · international results feed

The scorecard

  • Switzerland and Canada share the points.✗ wrong
  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Switzerland4-2-3-1

  1. 1Gregor KobelG1947
  2. 25Luca JaquezD1846
  3. 4Nico ElvediD1728
  4. 5Manuel AkanjiD1925
  5. 13Ricardo RodríguezD1763
  6. 8Remo FreulerM1726
  7. 10Granit XhakaM1792
  8. 15Djibril SowM1698
  9. 9Johan ManzambiM1800
  10. 17Rubén VargasM1739
  11. 7Breel EmboloF1873

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Canada4-4-2

  1. 16Maxime CrépeauG1592
  2. 2Alistair JohnstonD1604
  3. 4Luc De FougerollesD1531
  4. 13Derek CorneliusD1574
  5. 22Richie LaryeaD1595
  6. 17Tajon BuchananM1822
  7. 25Nathan-Dylan SalibaM1592
  8. 6Mathieu ChoinièreM1602
  9. 20Ali AhmedM1623
  10. 10Jonathan DavidF1791
  11. 9Cyle LarinF1739

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:19 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 46'R. Vargasgoalassist J. Manzambi
  2. 57'J. Manzambigoalassist B. Embolo
  3. 58'S. Eustaquio for M. Choinieresub
  4. 58'L. Millar for A. Ahmedsub
  5. 58'T. Oluwaseyi for C. Larinsub
  6. 74'S. Widmer for L. Jaquezsub
  7. 74'M. Aebischer for D. Sowsub
  8. 75'P. David for T. Buchanansub
  9. 76'P. Davidgoalassist N. Saliba
  10. 80'D. Ndoye for R. Vargassub
  11. 83'J. Shaffelburg for R. Laryeasub
  12. 85'C. Fassnacht for J. Manzambisub
  13. 85'C. Itten for B. Embolosub

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:24 GMT

Full time

Missed it.

Switzerland 2-1 Canada

Verdict
wrong and wrong
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed Honours even at 52%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Switzerland 2-1 Canada: the Switzerland win, an outcome we had at 29 in 100.

The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Switzerland and Canada share the points.
  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Switzerland +24 and Canada -24.

On our player board, the squads moved Switzerland +63 (16 appearances) · Canada -68 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeDrafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionelo-davidson-features-v2 → 29/52/19 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 52%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Switzerland v Canada before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.