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Thu 18 Jun · 22:00 UTC · Fri 00:00 CEST · Group B

full time

Canada6–0Qatar

1892+11rating1569-6230thfifa56thdown 1
A. Davies1938talismanEdmilson Junior1615

BC Place, Vancouver · 54,500 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Canada to win

home 72% ✓draw 19%away 10%

sealed Tue 16 Jun · 16:20 UTC · 18:20 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Tue, 16 Jun 2026 16:20:55 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Canada

ProofXI rating

1892+11 this year

1881 → 1892 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

30thheld on the latest list

27th → 30th · 6 lists

Qatar

ProofXI rating

1569-62 this year

1631 → 1569 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

56thdown 1 place on the latest list

54th → 56th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Canada by 323 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and Canada took it.

1 prior meeting · Canada 1, drawn 0, Qatar 0 · goals 2-0

  1. 2022Canada 2-0 Qatar· Friendly· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Canada the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Canada rating edge+281
Home advantage+65
Net edge+346

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +346 edge into 72% / 19% / 10% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Canada

1.9

expected goals

Qatar

0.7

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–013 in 100
  • 2–013 in 100
  • 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–19 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Canada 49 in 100, Qatar 15 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Canada win at home.✓ right
  • Canada win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • Canada keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Canada4-4-2

  1. 16Maxime CrépeauG1592
  2. 2Alistair JohnstonD1604
  3. 4Luc De FougerollesD1531
  4. 13Derek CorneliusD1574
  5. 22Richie LaryeaD1595
  6. 17Tajon BuchananM1822
  7. 7Stephen EustaquioM1642
  8. 8Ismael KonéM1608
  9. 20Ali AhmedM1623
  10. 10Jonathan DavidF1791
  11. 9Cyle LarinF1739

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Qatar4-3-3

  1. 1Mahmud AbunadaG1461
  2. 13Ayoub Al OuiD~1506 provisional
  3. 2Pedro MiguelD1530
  4. 16Boualem KhoukhiD1549
  5. 14Homam Al-AminD1543
  6. 5Jassem Gaber AbdulsallamM1506
  7. 23Assim MadiboM1516
  8. 4Issa LayeM1501
  9. 8Edmilson JuniorF1615
  10. 15Yusuf AbdurisagF1504
  11. 11Akram AfifF1643

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:20:28 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 16'C. Laringoal
  2. 29'J. Davidgoal
  3. 40'S. Al Brake for Y. Abdurisagsub
  4. 45+3'J. Davidgoal
  5. 46'A. Fathi for Edmilson Juniorsub
  6. 46'M. Al Mannai for J. Gabersub
  7. 46'M. Bombito for D. Corneliussub
  8. 57'N. Saliba for I. Konesub
  9. 59'A. Al Hussain for A. Afifsub
  10. 64'N. Salibagoal
  11. 71'J. Shaffelburg for L. De Fougerollessub
  12. 71'T. Oluwaseyi for A. Ahmedsub
  13. 75'M. Al Mannaigoal (o.g.)
  14. 83'N. Sigur for T. Buchanansub
  15. 87'Lucas Mendes for A. Fathisub
  16. 90+2'J. Davidgoalassist N. Saliba

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:22:37 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Canada 6-0 Qatar

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed Canada to win at 72%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Canada 6-0 Qatar: the Canada win, an outcome we had at 72 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Canada +13 and Qatar -13.

On our player board, the squads moved Canada +161 (16 appearances) · Qatar -217 (14 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +346 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 72/19/10 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Canada · 72%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Canada v Qatar before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.