Skip to content
World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Wed 17 Jun · 20:00 UTC · 22:00 CEST · Group L

full time

England4–2Croatia

2195+150rating1941-344thfifa11th

AT&T Stadium, Dallas · 80,000 seats

Called it. As forecast.

England to win

home 50% ✓draw 25%away 25%

sealed Mon 15 Jun · 20:49 UTC · 22:49 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:49:12 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

England

ProofXI rating

2195+150 this year

2045 → 2195 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

4thheld on the latest list

4th → 4th · 6 lists

Croatia

ProofXI rating

1941-34 this year

1975 → 1941 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

11thheld on the latest list

10th → 11th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: England by 254 points

Head to head

England have had the better of this fixture.

11 prior meetings · England 6, drawn 2, Croatia 3 · goals 22-13

  1. 2021England 1-0 Croatia· UEFA Euro
  2. 2018England 2-1 Croatia· UEFA Nations League
  3. 2018Croatia 0-0 England· UEFA Nations League
  4. 2018Croatia 2-1 England· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  5. 2009England 5-1 Croatia· FIFA World Cup qualification

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make England the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

England rating edge+123
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+123

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +123 edge into 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

England

1.5

expected goals

Croatia

1.1

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–011 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–09 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: England 34 in 100, Croatia 22 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • England win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: England win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

England4-2-3-1

  1. 1Jordan PickfordG1960
  2. 24Reece JamesD1957
  3. 2Ezri KonsaD2020
  4. 5John StonesD1992
  5. 3Nico O'ReillyD1712
  6. 8Elliot AndersonM2070
  7. 4Declan RiceM2462
  8. 20Noni MaduekeM2211
  9. 10Jude BellinghamM2147
  10. 18Anthony GordonM1985
  11. 9Harry KaneF2362

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Croatia3-4-2-1

  1. 1Dominik LivakovićG1688
  2. 6Josip ŠutaloD1675
  3. 22Luka VuškovićD~1798 provisional
  4. 4Joško GvardiolD2040
  5. 2Josip StanišićM2102
  6. 10Luka ModrićM1931
  7. 17Petar SučićM2044
  8. 14Ivan PerišićM1875
  9. 15Mario PašalićF~1628 provisional
  10. 16Martin BaturinaF1993
  11. 26Petar MusaF1685

9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 19:20:53 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 12'H. Kanegoal (pen)
  2. 36'M. Baturinagoalassist P. Sucic
  3. 42'H. Kanegoalassist D. Rice
  4. 45+5'P. Musagoalassist I. Perisic
  5. 47'J. Bellinghamgoalassist E. Anderson
  6. 58'M. Kovacic for L. Modricsub
  7. 66'M. Pasalic for L. Vuskovicsub
  8. 66'I. Matanovic for P. Musasub
  9. 72'M. Rashford for A. Gordonsub
  10. 72'B. Saka for N. Maduekesub
  11. 72'M. Rogers for D. Ricesub
  12. 78'N. Vlasic for M. Baturinasub
  13. 79'A. Kramaric for M. Pasalicsub
  14. 80'D. Spence for J. Bellinghamsub
  15. 85'M. Rashfordgoalassist B. Saka
  16. 87'M. Guehi for J. Stonessub

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 22:20:47 GMT

Full time

Called it.

England 4-2 Croatia

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed England to win at 50%, about , before kickoff. Full time said England 4-2 Croatia: the England win, an outcome we had at 50 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • No blowout: England win by a single goal at most, if at all.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved England +30 and Croatia -30.

On our player board, the squads moved England +98 (16 appearances) · Croatia -74 (15 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +123 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 50/25/25 (home/draw/away).Favourite: England · 50%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked England v Croatia before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.