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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Thu 2 Jul · 00:00 UTC · 02:00 CEST

full time

United States2–0Bosnia-Herzegovina

1840+33rating1674+10117thdown 1fifa64thup 1

Called it. As forecast.

United States to win

home 64% ✓draw 21%away 15%

sealed Mon 29 Jun · 19:54 UTC · 21:54 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:54:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

USA

ProofXI rating

1840+33 this year

1807 → 1840 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

17thdown 1 place on the latest list

14th → 17th · 6 lists

Bosnia & Herzegovina

ProofXI rating

1674+101 this year

1573 → 1674 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

64thup 1 place on the latest list

71st → 64th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: USA by 166 points

Head to head

United States have had the better of this fixture.

4 prior meetings · United States 3, drawn 1, Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 · goals 7-3

  1. 2026United States 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina· FIFA World Cup
  2. 2021United States 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina· Friendly
  3. 2018United States 0-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina· Friendly
  4. 2013Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-4 United States· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make United States the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

United States rating edge+189
Home advantage+65
Net edge+254

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +254 edge into 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

United States

1.8

expected goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0.8

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–012 in 100
  • 1–112 in 100
  • 2–011 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–110 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: United States 43 in 100, Bosnia-Herzegovina 17 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • United States win at home.✓ right
  • United States win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • United States keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

USA4-2-3-1

  1. 24Matthew FreeseG~1613 provisional
  2. 16Alexander FreemanD~1859 provisional
  3. 3Chris RichardsD1971
  4. 13Tim ReamD1580
  5. 5Antonee RobinsonD2001
  6. 17Malik TillmanM~1953 provisional
  7. 4Tyler AdamsM1997
  8. 2Sergiño DestM1996
  9. 8Weston McKennieM1898
  10. 10Christian PulišićM1888
  11. 20Folarin BalogunF1867

8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Bosnia & Herzegovina3-4-1-2

  1. 1Nikola VasiljG~1489 provisional
  2. 18Nikola KatićD1553
  3. 21Stjepan RadeljićD1558
  4. 4Tarik MuharemovićD~1563 provisional
  5. 7Amar DedićM1783
  6. 8Armin GigovićM1543
  7. 14Ivan ŠunjićM~1567 provisional
  8. 5Sead KolašinacM1771
  9. 19Kerim AlajbegovićF~1569 provisional
  10. 11Edin DžekoF1497
  11. 10Ermedin DemirovićF1770

7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:02:41 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 45'F. Balogungoal
  2. 51'E. Bajraktarevic for A. Gigovicsub
  3. 51'B. Tahirovic for I. Sunjicsub
  4. 51'E. Mahmic for E. Dzekosub
  5. 75'H. Tabakovic for S. Kolasinacsub
  6. 75'A. Memic for N. Katicsub
  7. 82'M. Tillmangoal
  8. 87'S. Berhalter for S. Destsub
  9. 88'R. Pepi for C. Pulisicsub
  10. 90+5'G. Reyna for W. McKenniesub

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:11:29 GMT

Full time

Called it.

United States 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed United States to win at 64%, about , before kickoff. Full time said United States 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina: the United States win, an outcome we had at 64 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved United States +12 and Bosnia-Herzegovina -12.

On our player board, the squads moved United States +166 (14 appearances) · Bosnia-Herzegovina -170 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +254 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 64/21/15 (home/draw/away).Favourite: United States · 64%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked United States v Bosnia-Herzegovina before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.