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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Sun 14 Jun · 04:00 UTC · 06:00 CEST · Group D

full time

Australia2–0Turkey

1907+18rating1918+3227thfifa22nd

BC Place, Vancouver · 54,500 seats

Missed it. It stays up.

Turkey to win

home 31% ✓draw 26%away 44%

sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted

Missed

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Australia

ProofXI rating

1907+18 this year

1889 → 1907 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

27thheld on the latest list

26th → 27th · 6 lists

Turkey

ProofXI rating

1918+32 this year

1886 → 1918 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

22ndheld on the latest list

25th → 22nd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Turkey by 11 points

Head to head

Turkey have had the better of this fixture.

3 prior meetings · Australia 1, drawn 0, Turkey 2 · goals 3-4

  1. 2026Australia 2-0 Turkey· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  2. 2004Australia 0-1 Turkey· Friendly
  3. 2004Australia 1-3 Turkey· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Turkey the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Australia rating edge-61
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-61

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -61 edge into 31% / 26% / 44% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Australia

1.2

expected goals

Turkey

1.4

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–110 in 100
  • 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–08 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Australia 24 in 100, Turkey 31 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Turkey win on the road.✗ wrong
  • No blowout: Turkey win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Australia5-4-1

  1. 18Patrick BeachG~1595 provisional
  2. 4Jacob ItalianoD~1575 provisional
  3. 3Alessandro CircatiD~1735 provisional
  4. 19Harry SouttarD1630
  5. 21Cameron BurgessD~1609 provisional
  6. 5Jordan BosD~1718 provisional
  7. 8Connor MetcalfeM~1626 provisional
  8. 13Aiden O'NeillM~1625 provisional
  9. 24Paul Okon-EngstlerM~1598 provisional
  10. 17Nestory IrankundaM~1549 provisional
  11. 9Mohamed TouréF~1591 provisional

1 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Turkey4-2-3-1

  1. 23Uğurcan ÇakırG1565
  2. 2Zeki ÇelikD1626
  3. 3Merih DemiralD~1581 provisional
  4. 14Abdülkerim BardakcıD1566
  5. 20Ferdi KadıoğluD1490
  6. 16İsmail YüksekM1594
  7. 10Hakan ÇalhanoğluM1957
  8. 8Arda GülerM2018
  9. 6Orkun KökçüM1700
  10. 21Barış Alper YılmazM1780
  11. 7Kerem AktürkoğluF1602

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 14 Jun 2026 05:12:49 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 27'N. Irankundagoalassist P. Okon-Engstler
  2. 46'K. Yildiz for B. Yilmazsub
  3. 61'N. Velupillay for N. Irankundasub
  4. 62'Y. Akgun for O. Kokcusub
  5. 74'T. Yengi for M. Touresub
  6. 74'J. Geria for J. Italianosub
  7. 75'C. Metcalfegoal
  8. 81'S. Ozcan for I. Yukseksub
  9. 81'M. Muldur for Z. Celiksub
  10. 84'A. Behich for J. Bossub
  11. 84'J. Irvine for P. Okon-Engstlersub
  12. 85'D. Gul for K. Akturkoglusub

source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:14:24 GMT

Full time

Missed it.

Australia 2-0 Turkey

Verdict
wrong and wrong
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed Turkey to win at 44%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Australia 2-0 Turkey: the Australia win, an outcome we had at 31 in 100.

The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Turkey win on the road.
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Australia +39 and Turkey -39.

On our player board, the squads moved Australia +352 (16 appearances) · Turkey -263 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -61 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 31/26/44 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Turkey · 44%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Australia v Turkey before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.