full time
Cape Verde Islands0–0Saudi Arabia
NRG Stadium, Houston · 72,220 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Honours even
sealed Thu 25 Jun · 08:57 UTC · 10:57 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:57:48 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1698+65 this year
1633 → 1698 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
67thup 2 places on the latest list
67th → 67th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1704+16 this year
1688 → 1704 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
61stheld on the latest list
60th → 61st · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Saudi Arabia by 6 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and it finished level.
1 prior meeting · Cape Verde Islands 0, drawn 1, Saudi Arabia 0 · goals 0-0
- 2026Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Saudi Arabia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -3 edge into 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Cape Verde Islands
1.3
expected goals
Saudi Arabia
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–28 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Cape Verde Islands 27 in 100, Saudi Arabia 27 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Cape Verde Islands and Saudi Arabia share the points.✓ right
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Cape Verde4-2-3-1
- 1VozinhaG~1536 provisional
- 24Wagner PinaD~1593 provisional
- 3Diney BorgesD~1550 provisional
- 4PicoD~1547 provisional
- 8João PauloD~1528 provisional
- 6Kevin LeniniM~1567 provisional
- 14Deroy DuarteM~1499 provisional
- 20Ryan MendesM~1488 provisional
- 10Jamiro MonteiroM~1507 provisional
- 17Willy SemedoM~1500 provisional
- 19Dailon Rocha LivramentoF~1440 provisional
0 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Márcio RosaG~1508 provisional
- 23CJ Dos SantosG~1501 provisional
- 2StopiraD~1490 provisional
- 5Logan CostaD~1708 provisional
- 22Steven MoreiraD~1521 provisional
- 25Kelvin PiresD~1521 provisional
- 11Garry RodriguesF1484
- 15Laros DuarteM~1517 provisional
- 16Yannick SemedoM~1502 provisional
- 26Hélio VarelaF~1527 provisional
- 7Jovane CabralF1443
- 21Nuno Da CostaF~1493 provisional
- 9Gilson TavaresF~1519 provisional
Saudi Arabia4-4-2
- 21Mohammed Al-OwaisG~1535 provisional
- 13Nawaf BoushalD~1692 provisional
- 4Abdulelah Al-AmriD~1637 provisional
- 5Hassan TambaktiD~1717 provisional
- 6Nasser Al-DawsariM~1619 provisional
- 12Saud AbdulhamidD1570
- 15Abdullah Al-KhaibariM~1578 provisional
- 23Mohamed KannoF~1597 provisional
- 10Salem Al-DawsariM~1634 provisional
- 9Firas Al-BuraikanF~1550 provisional
- 20Sultan MandashM~1601 provisional
1 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Nawaf Al-AqidiG~1548 provisional
- 22Ahmed Al-KassarG~1533 provisional
- 2Ali MajrashiD~1671 provisional
- 24Moteb Al-HarbiD~1650 provisional
- 25Jehad ThakriD~1545 provisional
- 14Hassan KadeshD~1573 provisional
- 3Ali LajamiD~1580 provisional
- 8Ayman YahyaM~1557 provisional
- 16Ziyad AljohaniM~1576 provisional
- 26Mohammed Abu Al-ShamatM~1699 provisional
- 18Ala'a Al-HejjiMunrated
- 7Musab Al JuwayrM~1648 provisional
- 17Khalid Al-GhannamF~1576 provisional
- 19Abdullah Al-HamdanF~1548 provisional
- 11Saleh Al-ShehriF~1530 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 23:20:52 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 33'A. Lajami for H. Tambaktisub
- 46'M. Al Juwayr for A. Al Khaibarisub
- 61'N. Da Costa for D. Livramentosub
- 61'H. Varela for W. Semedosub
- 66'M. Abu Al Shamat for S. Al Dawsarisub
- 66'A. Al Hamdan for S. Mandashsub
- 71'G. Rodrigues for R. Mendessub
- 71'L. Duarte for J. Monteirosub
- 82'M. Al Harbi for N. Boushalsub
- 90+4'S. Moreira for W. Pinasub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 02:22:52 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Saudi Arabia
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Honours even at 37%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Saudi Arabia: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Cape Verde Islands +0 and Saudi Arabia +0.
On our player board, the squads moved Cape Verde Islands +18 (16 appearances) · Saudi Arabia -30 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -3 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 37/26/37 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 37%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Cape Verde Islands v Saudi Arabia before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.