full time
Bosnia-Herzegovina3–1Qatar
Lumen Field, Seattle · 68,740 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win
sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:46:42 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1674+101 this year
1573 → 1674 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
64thup 1 place on the latest list
71st → 64th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1543-105 this year
1648 → 1543 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
56thdown 1 place on the latest list
54th → 56th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Bosnia & Herzegovina by 131 points
Head to head
Qatar have had the better of this fixture.
2 prior meetings · Bosnia-Herzegovina 0, drawn 1, Qatar 1 · goals 1-3
- 2010Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Qatar· Friendly
- 2000Qatar 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Bosnia-Herzegovina the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +74 edge into 45% / 25% / 29% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Bosnia-Herzegovina
1.4
expected goals
Qatar
1.2
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–010 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Bosnia-Herzegovina 31 in 100, Qatar 24 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Bosnia-Herzegovina win at home.✓ right
- No blowout: Bosnia-Herzegovina win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Bosnia & Herzegovina4-4-2
- 1Nikola VasiljG~1489 provisional
- 24Arjan MalićDunrated
- 18Nikola KatićD1553
- 21Stjepan RadeljićD1558
- 5Sead KolašinacD1771
- 20Esmir BajraktarevićM1720
- 13Ivan BašićM~1585 provisional
- 14Ivan ŠunjićM~1567 provisional
- 19Kerim AlajbegovićM~1569 provisional
- 10Ermedin DemirovićF1770
- 11Edin DžekoF1497
6 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 6Benjamin TahirovićM~1528 provisional
- 15Amar MemićM~1546 provisional
- 3Dennis HadžikadunićD1558
- 26Ermin MahmićM~1542 provisional
- 17Dženis BurnićM~1552 provisional
- 22Martin ZlomislićG~1538 provisional
- 12Mladen JurkasG~1530 provisional
- 2Nihad MujakićD~1514 provisional
- 7Amar DedićD1783
- 16Amir HadžiahmetovićM~1581 provisional
- 8Armin GigovićM1543
- 25Jovo LukićF~1539 provisional
- 9Samed BaždarF~1526 provisional
- 23Haris TabakovićF1687
Qatar4-3-3
- 1Mahmud AbunadaG~1458 provisional
- 2Pedro MiguelD~1482 provisional
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD~1488 provisional
- 4Issa LayeD~1492 provisional
- 18Sultan Al-BrakeD~1509 provisional
- 5Jassem Gaber AbdulsallamM~1500 provisional
- 20Ahmed FathiM~1463 provisional
- 12Karim BoudiafM~1466 provisional
- 8Edmilson JuniorF~1586 provisional
- 11Akram AfifF~1517 provisional
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF~1515 provisional
0 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 6Abdelaziz HatemM~1494 provisional
- 17Ahmed Al-GanehiF~1521 provisional
- 19Almoez AliF~1533 provisional
- 26Mohamed Naceur AlmanaiM~1512 provisional
- 7Ahmed AlaaeldinF~1522 provisional
- 22Meshaal BarshamG~1532 provisional
- 21Salah ZakariaG~1523 provisional
- 3Lucas MendesD~1514 provisional
- 25Al-Hashmi Al-HussainD~1517 provisional
- 13Ayoub Al OuiD~1507 provisional
- 24Tahsin Mohammed JamshidF~1470 provisional
- 9Mohammed MuntariF~1510 provisional
- 15Yusuf AbdurisagF~1500 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:19 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 29'K. Alajbegovicgoalassist I. Basic
- 34'M. Abunadagoal (o.g.)
- 42'H. Al Haydosgoalassist Edmilson Junior
- 46'B. Tahirovic for I. Sunjicsub
- 46'A. Memic for A. Malicsub
- 46'A. Hatem for J. Gabersub
- 56'A. Al Ganehi for H. Al Haydossub
- 63'D. Hadzikadunic for N. Katicsub
- 64'E. Mahmic for E. Dzekosub
- 72'A. Ali for K. Boudiafsub
- 79'A. Alaaeldin for Edmilson Juniorsub
- 79'M. Al Mannai for A. Fathisub
- 80'E. Mahmicgoalassist D. Hadzikadunic
- 82'D. Burnic for K. Alajbegovicsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:24 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 45%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar: the Bosnia-Herzegovina win, an outcome we had at 45 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- No blowout: Bosnia-Herzegovina win by a single goal at most, if at all.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Bosnia-Herzegovina +35 and Qatar -35.
On our player board, the squads moved Bosnia-Herzegovina +206 (15 appearances) · Qatar -238 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +74 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 45/25/29 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Bosnia-Herzegovina · 45%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Bosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.