full time
Qatar1–1Switzerland
Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Switzerland to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1543-105 this year
1648 → 1543 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
56thdown 1 place on the latest list
54th → 56th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2005+84 this year
1921 → 2005 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
19thheld on the latest list
17th → 19th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Switzerland by 462 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Qatar took it.
1 prior meeting · Qatar 1, drawn 0, Switzerland 0 · goals 1-0
- 2018Switzerland 0-1 Qatar· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Switzerland the stronger side, and seal the call at about 8 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -394 edge into 8% / 17% / 75% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Qatar
0.6
expected goals
Switzerland
2.0
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–214 in 100
- 0–114 in 100
- 1–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–39 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Qatar 14 in 100, Switzerland 53 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Switzerland win on the road.✗ wrong
- Switzerland win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Switzerland keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Qatar4-3-3
- 1Mahmud AbunadG~1458 provisional
- 13Ayoub Al OuiD~1507 provisional
- 2Pedro MiguelD~1482 provisional
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD~1488 provisional
- 14Homam Al-AminD~1532 provisional
- 5Jassem Gaber AbdulsallamM~1500 provisional
- 23Assim MadiboM~1497 provisional
- 4Issa LayeM~1492 provisional
- 8Edmilson JuniorF~1586 provisional
- 15Yusuf AbdurisagF~1500 provisional
- 11Akram AfifF~1517 provisional
0 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Meshaal BarshamG~1532 provisional
- 21Salah ZakariaG~1523 provisional
- 3Lucas MendesD~1514 provisional
- 18Sultan Al-BrakeD~1509 provisional
- 25Al-Hashmi Al-HussainD~1517 provisional
- 6Abdelaziz HatemM~1494 provisional
- 17Ahmed Al-GanehiF~1521 provisional
- 20Ahmed FathiM~1463 provisional
- 12Karim BoudiafM~1466 provisional
- 26Mohamed Naceur AlmanaiM~1512 provisional
- 19Almoez AliF~1533 provisional
- 9Mohammed MuntariF~1510 provisional
- 24Tahsin Mohammed JamshidF~1470 provisional
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF~1515 provisional
- 7Ahmed AlaaeldinF~1522 provisional
Switzerland3-4-2-1
- 1Gregor KobelG2046
- 6Denis ZakariaD1799
- 5Manuel AkanjiD1969
- 4Nico ElvediD~1780 provisional
- 20Michel AebischerM1604
- 8Remo FreulerM1786
- 10Granit XhakaM2003
- 13Ricardo RodríguezM~1791 provisional
- 11Dan NdoyeF1886
- 17Rubén VargasF1762
- 7Breel EmboloF~1938 provisional
8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Yvon MvogoG~1754 provisional
- 21Marvin KellerG~1552 provisional
- 25Luca JaquezD~1841 provisional
- 18Eray CömertD~1789 provisional
- 24Aurèle AmendaD1738
- 15Djibril SowM1668
- 22Fabian RiederM1765
- 9Johan ManzambiM~1812 provisional
- 3Silvan WidmerD1735
- 2Miro MuheimD1697
- 16Christian FassnachtM~1554 provisional
- 14Ardon JashariM1835
- 26Cédric IttenF1603
- 23Zeki AmdouniF1690
- 19Noah OkaforF~1941 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 13 Jun 2026 18:14:49 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Qatar 1-1 Switzerland
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Switzerland to win at 75%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Qatar 1-1 Switzerland: the draw, an outcome we had at 17 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Switzerland win on the road.
- Switzerland win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Switzerland keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Qatar +24 and Switzerland -24.
On our player board, the squads moved Qatar +63 (15 appearances) · Switzerland -81 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -394 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 8/17/75 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Switzerland · 75%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Qatar v Switzerland before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.