full time
New Zealand1–3Egypt
BC Place, Vancouver · 54,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Egypt to win
sealed Sat 20 Jun · 19:14 UTC · 21:14 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Sat, 20 Jun 2026 19:14:49 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1688-122 this year
1810 → 1688 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
85thheld on the latest list
87th → 85th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1859+81 this year
1778 → 1859 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
29thheld on the latest list
35th → 29th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Egypt by 171 points
Head to head
Egypt have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · New Zealand 0, drawn 1, Egypt 3 · goals 2-6
- 2026New Zealand 1-3 Egypt· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2024Egypt 1-0 New Zealand· FIFA Series
- 1999Egypt 1-0 New Zealand· Friendly· neutral
- 1999Egypt 1-1 New Zealand· Friendly· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Egypt the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -78 edge into 29% / 25% / 45% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
New Zealand
1.2
expected goals
Egypt
1.4
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–110 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: New Zealand 24 in 100, Egypt 31 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Egypt win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Egypt win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
New Zealand4-2-3-1
- 1Max CrocombeG~1574 provisional
- 2Tim PayneD~1526 provisional
- 16Finn SurmanD~1551 provisional
- 5Michael BoxallD~1476 provisional
- 13Liberato CacaceD~1574 provisional
- 6Joe BellM~1528 provisional
- 8Marko StamenićM1544
- 20Callum McCowattM~1551 provisional
- 10Sarpreet SinghM~1520 provisional
- 11Elijah JustM~1562 provisional
- 9Chris WoodF1887
2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Alex PaulsenG~1526 provisional
- 22Michael WoudG~1533 provisional
- 26Tommy SmithD~1537 provisional
- 4Tyler BindonD~1556 provisional
- 15Nando PijnakerD~1553 provisional
- 3Francis De VriesD~1551 provisional
- 24Callan ElliotD~1555 provisional
- 23Ryan ThomasM~1510 provisional
- 19Benjamin OldF~1535 provisional
- 14Alex RuferM~1543 provisional
- 25Lachlan BaylissM~1549 provisional
- 7Logan RogersonFunrated
- 21Jesse RandallF~1536 provisional
- 17Kosta BarbarousesF~1524 provisional
- 18Ben WaineF~1538 provisional
Egypt4-2-3-1
- 23Mostafa ShobeirG~1598 provisional
- 3Mohamed HanyD~1629 provisional
- 2Yasser IbrahimD~1578 provisional
- 14Hamdy FathyD~1620 provisional
- 13Ahmed FatouhD~1621 provisional
- 19Marwan AttiaM~1603 provisional
- 17Mohanad LasheenM~1584 provisional
- 11Mostafa ZikoM~1594 provisional
- 10Mohamed SalahM2307
- 8Emam AshourM1637
- 22Omar MarmoushF2065
3 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 26Mohamed AlaaG~1553 provisional
- 16Mahdi SolimanG~1554 provisional
- 1Mohamed El-ShenawyG~1556 provisional
- 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD~1581 provisional
- 24Tarek AlaaD~1559 provisional
- 6Mohamed AbdelmonemD~1632 provisional
- 5Rami RabiaD~1575 provisional
- 15Karim HafezD~1576 provisional
- 25ZizoF~1565 provisional
- 21Mahmoud SaberM~1587 provisional
- 20Ibrahim AdelF~1580 provisional
- 7Mahmoud TrézéguetF1593
- 12Haissem HassanF~1551 provisional
- 18Nabil DongaM~1537 provisional
- 9Hamza AbdelkarimF~1519 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:31:10 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 15'F. Surmangoalassist T. Payne
- 41'R. Rabia for H. Fathysub
- 58'M. Zikogoalassist M. Hany
- 66'B. Old for C. McCowattsub
- 67'M. Salahgoalassist M. Ziko
- 76'R. Thomas for S. Singhsub
- 76'J. Randall for L. Cacacesub
- 76'Trezeguet for O. Marmoushsub
- 76'H. Abdelkarim for M. Zikosub
- 82'Trezeguetgoalassist M. Salah
- 85'Zizo for E. Ashoursub
- 85'H. Abdelmaguid for M. Salahsub
- 85'T. Bindon for T. Paynesub
- 85'F. De Vries for E. Justsub
- 90+9'M. Abdelmonem for H. Abdelmaguidsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:35:26 GMT
Full time
Called it.
New Zealand 1-3 Egypt
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Egypt to win at 45%, about , before kickoff. Full time said New Zealand 1-3 Egypt: the Egypt win, an outcome we had at 45 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- No blowout: Egypt win by a single goal at most, if at all.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved New Zealand -27 and Egypt +27.
On our player board, the squads moved New Zealand -252 (16 appearances) · Egypt +262 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -78 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 29/25/45 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Egypt · 45%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked New Zealand v Egypt before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.