full time
Netherlands2–2Morocco
Missed it. It stays up.
Netherlands to win
sealed Sun 28 Jun · 19:07 UTC · 21:07 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Sun, 28 Jun 2026 19:07:46 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2046+10 this year
2036 → 2046 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
8thdown 1 place on the latest list
7th → 8th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2027+118 this year
1909 → 2027 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
7thup 1 place on the latest list
11th → 7th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Netherlands by 19 points
Head to head
Netherlands have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · Netherlands 2, drawn 1, Morocco 1 · goals 6-5
- 2026Netherlands 1-1 Morocco· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2017Morocco 1-2 Netherlands· Friendly
- 1999Netherlands 1-2 Morocco· Friendly
- 1994Morocco 1-2 Netherlands· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Netherlands the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +27 edge into 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Netherlands
1.3
expected goals
Morocco
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–18 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Netherlands 29 in 100, Morocco 26 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Netherlands win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Netherlands win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Netherlands3-4-2-1
- 1Bart VerbruggenG1953
- 6Jan Paul van HeckeD2066
- 4Virgil van DijkD2196
- 5Nathan AkéD1965
- 22Denzel DumfriesM1993
- 8Ryan GravenberchM2151
- 21Frenkie de JongM2096
- 15Micky van de VenM1903
- 24Crysencio SummervilleF1886
- 11Cody GakpoF2108
- 19Brian BrobbeyF1886
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 23Mark FlekkenG1880
- 13Robin RoefsG~1922 provisional
- 25Jorrel HatoD1879
- 2Lutsharel GeertruidaDunrated
- 12Mats WiefferM2023
- 16Guus TilM1951
- 7Justin KluivertF2023
- 3Marten de RoonM1898
- 26Quinten TimberM1852
- 20Teun KoopmeinersM1940
- 14Tijjani ReijndersM2076
- 18Donyell MalenF2087
- 10Memphis DepayF1885
- 9Wout WeghorstF1684
- 17Noa LangF1813
Morocco4-2-3-1
- 1Yassine BounouG1773
- 2Achraf HakimiD2090
- 14Issa DiopD~1887 provisional
- 18Chadi RiadD~1889 provisional
- 3Noussair MazraouiD2005
- 24Neil El AynaouiM1903
- 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1866
- 10Brahim DíazM2052
- 8Azzedine OunahiM1857
- 23Bilal El KhannoussM1911
- 11Ismael SaibariF1987
9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Ahmed Reda TagnaoutiG~1599 provisional
- 12Munir El KajouiG~1603 provisional
- 26Anass Salah-EddineD1845
- 5Marwane SaadaneDunrated
- 25Redouane HalhalD~1628 provisional
- 19Youssef BelammariD~1619 provisional
- 13Zakaria El OuahdiD1672
- 17Amine SbaiFunrated
- 7Chemsdine TalbiF1831
- 16Gessime YassineF1750
- 15Samir El MourabetM~1839 provisional
- 4Sofyan AmrabatM1787
- 20Ayoub El KaabiF~1752 provisional
- 21Ayoube Amaimouni EchghouyabF~1733 provisional
- 9Soufiane RahimiF1677
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:20:57 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 71'T. Koopmeiners for N. Akesub
- 71'W. Weghorst for B. Brobbeysub
- 72'C. Gakpogoalassist C. Summerville
- 75'A. Salah-Eddine for C. Riadsub
- 79'G. Yassine for B. Diazsub
- 79'S. El Mourabet for A. Bouaddisub
- 86'S. Rahimi for A. Ounahisub
- 86'J. Hato for M. van de Vensub
- 86'Q. Timber for R. Gravenberchsub
- 87'C. Talbi for B. El Khannousssub
- 90+1'I. Diopgoalassist C. Talbi
- 110'M. De Roon for F. de Jongsub
- 113'J. Kluivert for C. Gakposub
- 120+1'T. Koopmeinersgoal (pen)
- 120+2'S. Rahimigoal (pen)
- 120+3'W. Weghorstgoal (pen)
- 120+3'C. Talbigoal (pen)
- 120+5'I. Saibarigoal (pen)
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 07:48:55 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Netherlands 2-2 Morocco
- Verdict
- wrong but well reasoned
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Netherlands to win at 40%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Netherlands 2-2 Morocco: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Netherlands win at home.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Netherlands -2 and Morocco +2.
On our player board, the squads moved Netherlands -65 (17 appearances) · Morocco +66 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +27 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 40/26/34 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Netherlands · 40%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Netherlands v Morocco before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.