full time
Netherlands2–2Morocco
Missed it. It stays up.
Netherlands to win
sealed Sun 28 Jun · 19:07 UTC · 21:07 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Sun, 28 Jun 2026 19:07:46 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2046+10 this year
2036 → 2046 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
8thdown 1 place on the latest list
7th → 8th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2023+114 this year
1909 → 2023 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
7thup 1 place on the latest list
11th → 7th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Netherlands by 23 points
Head to head
Netherlands have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · Netherlands 2, drawn 1, Morocco 1 · goals 6-5
- 2026Netherlands 1-1 Morocco· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2017Morocco 1-2 Netherlands· Friendly
- 1999Netherlands 1-2 Morocco· Friendly
- 1994Morocco 1-2 Netherlands· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Netherlands the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +27 edge into 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Netherlands
1.3
expected goals
Morocco
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–18 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Netherlands 29 in 100, Morocco 26 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Netherlands win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Netherlands win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Netherlands3-4-2-1
- 1Bart VerbruggenG1934
- 6Jan Paul van HeckeD1958
- 4Virgil van DijkD1962
- 5Nathan AkéD2021
- 22Denzel DumfriesM2008
- 8Ryan GravenberchM1975
- 21Frenkie de JongM2033
- 15Micky van de VenM1825
- 24Crysencio SummervilleF1905
- 11Cody GakpoF1978
- 19Brian BrobbeyF1895
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 23Mark FlekkenG1943
- 13Robin RoefsG1922
- 25Jorrel HatoD1874
- 2Lutsharel GeertruidaDunrated
- 12Mats WiefferM1935
- 16Guus TilM1904
- 7Justin KluivertF1944
- 3Marten de RoonM1831
- 26Quinten TimberM1812
- 20Teun KoopmeinersM1861
- 14Tijjani ReijndersM2071
- 18Donyell MalenF2046
- 10Memphis DepayF1884
- 9Wout WeghorstF1689
- 17Noa LangF1806
Morocco4-2-3-1
- 1Yassine BounouG1679
- 2Achraf HakimiD2045
- 14Issa DiopD1880
- 18Chadi RiadD1876
- 3Noussair MazraouiD1960
- 24Neil El AynaouiM1919
- 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1817
- 10Brahim DíazM1984
- 8Azzedine OunahiM1727
- 23Bilal El KhannoussM1910
- 11Ismael SaibariF1877
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Ahmed Reda TagnaoutiG~1599 provisional
- 12Munir El KajouiG1630
- 26Anass Salah-EddineD1840
- 5Marwane SaadaneDunrated
- 25Redouane HalhalD1604
- 19Youssef BelammariD1620
- 13Zakaria El OuahdiD1665
- 17Amine SbaiFunrated
- 7Chemsdine TalbiF1884
- 16Gessime YassineF1758
- 15Samir El MourabetM1796
- 4Sofyan AmrabatM1827
- 20Ayoub El KaabiF1714
- 21Ayoube Amaimouni EchghouyabF1750
- 9Soufiane RahimiF1645
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:20:57 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 71'T. Koopmeiners for N. Akesub
- 71'W. Weghorst for B. Brobbeysub
- 72'C. Gakpogoalassist C. Summerville
- 75'A. Salah-Eddine for C. Riadsub
- 79'G. Yassine for B. Diazsub
- 79'S. El Mourabet for A. Bouaddisub
- 86'S. Rahimi for A. Ounahisub
- 86'J. Hato for M. van de Vensub
- 86'Q. Timber for R. Gravenberchsub
- 87'C. Talbi for B. El Khannousssub
- 90+1'I. Diopgoalassist C. Talbi
- 110'M. De Roon for F. de Jongsub
- 113'J. Kluivert for C. Gakposub
- 120+1'T. Koopmeinersgoal (pen)
- 120+2'S. Rahimigoal (pen)
- 120+3'W. Weghorstgoal (pen)
- 120+3'C. Talbigoal (pen)
- 120+5'I. Saibarigoal (pen)
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 07:48:55 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Netherlands 2-2 Morocco
- Verdict
- wrong but well reasoned
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Netherlands to win at 40%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Netherlands 2-2 Morocco: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Netherlands win at home.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Netherlands -2 and Morocco +2.
On our player board, the squads moved Netherlands -29 (17 appearances) · Morocco +29 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +27 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 40/26/34 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Netherlands · 40%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Netherlands v Morocco before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.