Skip to content
World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Sat 27 Jun · 21:00 UTC · 23:00 CEST · Group L

full time

Croatia2–1Ghana

1941-34rating1681+8411thfifa73rdup 1

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · 69,796 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Croatia to win

home 64% ✓draw 21%away 15%

sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Croatia

ProofXI rating

1941-34 this year

1975 → 1941 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

11thheld on the latest list

10th → 11th · 6 lists

Ghana

ProofXI rating

1681+84 this year

1597 → 1681 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

73rdup 1 place on the latest list

72nd → 73rd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Croatia by 260 points

How we got hereWe make Croatia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Croatia rating edge+256
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+256

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +256 edge into 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Croatia

1.8

expected goals

Ghana

0.8

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–012 in 100
  • 1–112 in 100
  • 2–011 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–110 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Croatia 43 in 100, Ghana 17 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Croatia win at home.✓ right
  • Croatia win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
  • Croatia keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Croatia4-2-3-1

  1. 1Dominik LivakovićG1688
  2. 2Josip StanišićD2102
  3. 6Josip ŠutaloD1675
  4. 3Marin PongračićD~1760 provisional
  5. 14Ivan PerišićD1875
  6. 10Luka ModrićM1931
  7. 8Mateo KovačićM2084
  8. 13Nikola VlašićM~1735 provisional
  9. 17Petar SučićM2044
  10. 16Martin BaturinaM1993
  11. 11Ante BudimirF~1810 provisional

8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Ghana4-3-3

  1. 16Benjamin AsareG~1559 provisional
  2. 26Marvin SenayaD~1588 provisional
  3. 4Jonas Adjei AdjeteyD~1634 provisional
  4. 23Derrick LuckassenD~1586 provisional
  5. 14Gideon MensahD~1584 provisional
  6. 5Thomas ParteyM1833
  7. 15Elisha OwusuM~1516 provisional
  8. 8Kwasi SiboM~1550 provisional
  9. 22Kamaldeen SulemanaF1726
  10. 9Jordan AyewF1470
  11. 11Antoine SemenyoF2103

4 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 20:06:31 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 31'P. Sucicgoalassist M. Kovacic
  2. 46'K. Peprah for J. Adjeteysub
  3. 46'I. Fatawu for E. Owususub
  4. 66'I. Matanovic for A. Budimirsub
  5. 71'B. Thomas-Asante for J. Ayewsub
  6. 71'E. Nuamah for K. Sulemanasub
  7. 73'D. Luckassengoalassist E. Nuamah
  8. 78'M. Pasalic for M. Kovacicsub
  9. 83'N. Vlasicgoalassist L. Modric
  10. 85'C. Yirenkyi for K. Sibosub
  11. 88'M. Pasalic for M. Baturinasub
  12. 88'J. Gvardiol for N. Vlasicsub

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:58:57 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Croatia 2-1 Ghana

Verdict
right but lucky
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed Croatia to win at 64%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Croatia 2-1 Ghana: the Croatia win, an outcome we had at 64 in 100.

The call landed, but the claims underneath it mostly did not. We count that as lucky, not vindicated, the result flatters the reasoning, and the scorecard above keeps the receipts. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Croatia win comfortably, by two goals or more.
  • Croatia keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Croatia +11 and Ghana -11.

On our player board, the squads moved Croatia +96 (14 appearances) · Ghana -99 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +256 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 64/21/15 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Croatia · 64%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Croatia v Ghana before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.