Martin Ødegaard

Midfield, Norway

Club football at Arsenal FC.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
27
sourced with the squad
position
Midfield
Norway
club
Arsenal FC
football-data.org
club tier
2064
ClubElo strength
our board
#71
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
2138′
33 appearances
npxG per 90
0.17
73th percentile of peers

Sourced

squad: Norway · Midfieldfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: Arsenal FCfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1997 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

2010 full roster Elo (+14 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Norway's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1986
age curve at 27 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls: -3
attacking output in club football, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +14
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1997
form: national-team results, 33 appearances2138 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +14
full roster Elo · with results: 2010

Where the +14 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 0.17 npxG per 90
his rank: 73th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: recent club seasons, every shot scored by our own xG model
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(72.7th) = 46 × 0.60 × 0.5 (position weight) = +14

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-23. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#71 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.
vs his seed
The folded nights have added +14 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€40m–€154m ≈ €78m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 2064the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×10.18
ageage 27, in the fee-peak window (24–27): ×1.00
midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×0.90
individual skillmeasured 73th percentile of peers: ×1.21
our estimate: ≈ €78m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €35m (2021-08). Our estimate today: ≈ €78m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: undervalued , we rate him 123% above his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

2021-08-20Real Madrid → Arsenal€35m
2021-07-01Arsenal → Real Madridundisclosed
2021-01-27Real Madrid → Arsenalloan
2020-08-12Real Sociedad → Real Madridundisclosed

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Norway’s record

at Ivory CoastSealed
v France1–4Missed it
v Senegal3–2Called it
at Iraq1–4Called it

The newsroom’s calls on Norway. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.