Erling Haaland

Offence, Norway

Club football at Manchester City FC.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
25
sourced with the squad
position
Offence
Norway
club
Manchester City FC
football-data.org
club tier
1971
ClubElo strength
our board
#43
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
4003′
47 appearances
npxG per 90
0.58
100th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Goals for Norway, on the record and counted.

goals
4
assists
0

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad: Norway · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: Manchester City FCfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

2032 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

2074 full roster Elo (+41 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~2085 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the offence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Norway's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1916
age curve at 25 (offences' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior: -7
attacking output in club football, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +123
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 2032
form: national-team results, 47 appearances4003 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +41
full roster Elo · with results: 2074

Where the +123 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 0.58 npxG per 90
his rank: 100th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: recent club seasons, every shot scored by our own xG model
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(99.6th) = 46 × 2.68 = +123

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-23. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#43 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.
vs his seed
The folded nights have added +41 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.
workload
He barely leaves the pitch: 85′ a night across 47 folded appearances.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€41m–€160m ≈ €81m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 1971the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×6.39
ageage 25, in the fee-peak window (24–27): ×1.00
attacker fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×1.00
individual skillmeasured 100th percentile of peers: ×1.81
our estimate: ≈ €81m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €75m (2022-07). Our estimate today: ≈ €81m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

2022-07-01Borussia Dortmund → Manchester City€75m
2020-01-01Red Bull Salzburg → Borussia Dortmund€20m
2019-01-01Molde → Red Bull Salzburg€5m
2017-02-01Bryne → Moldeundisclosed

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Norway’s record

at Ivory CoastSealed
v France1–4Missed it
v Senegal3–2Called it
at Iraq1–4Called it

The newsroom’s calls on Norway. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.