Hiroki Ito

Defence, Japan

Club football at FC Bayern München.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
26
sourced with the squad
position
Defence
Japan
club
FC Bayern München
football-data.org
club tier
2001
ClubElo strength
our board
#54
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
1472′
22 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
18.00
97th percentile of peers

Sourced

squad: Japan · Defencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: FC Bayern Münchenfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

2018 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

2007 full roster Elo (−11 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Japan's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1984
age curve at 26 (defences' curve)the position's measured peak, no discount either way: +0
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +34
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 2018
form: national-team results, 22 appearances1472 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: -11
full roster Elo · with results: 2007

Where the +34 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 18.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 97th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(96.6th) = 46 × 1.83 × 0.4 (position weight) = +34

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-29. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#54 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.
vs his seed
The folded nights have cost him 11 points off his seed, kept on the record, like everything.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€13m–€50m ≈ €25m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 2001the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×7.43
ageage 26, in the fee-peak window (24–27): ×1.00
defender fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×0.58
individual skillmeasured 24th percentile of peers: ×0.80
our estimate: ≈ €25m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €24m (2024-07). Our estimate today: ≈ €25m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

2024-07-01VfB Stuttgart → Bayern München€24m
2022-07-01Jubilo Iwata → VfB Stuttgart€0.4m
2021-07-05Jubilo Iwata → Stuttgart IIloan
2020-01-04Nagoya Grampus → Jubilo Iwataundisclosed

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Japan’s record

at Brazil2–1Called it
v Sweden1–1Missed it
at Tunisia0–4Called it
at Netherlands2–2Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Japan. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.