William Saliba

2162 full roster Elo (+24 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~2174 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the defence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at France's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

2087

age curve at 24 (defences' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior

-7

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+58

quality rating · club, age + measured output

2138

form: national-team results, 32 appearances2799 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+24

full roster Elo · with results

2162

Where the +58 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

100.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

100th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(99.9th) = 46 × 3.16 × 0.4 (position weight) = +58

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-22. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 2064the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×10.18

ageage 24, in the fee-peak window (24–27)

×1.00

defender fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.58

individual skillmeasured 10th percentile of peers

×0.71

our estimate

≈ €31m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.