full time
Ivory Coast1–2Norway
Called it. As forecast.
Norway to win
sealed Sun 28 Jun · 19:07 UTC · 21:07 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Sun, 28 Jun 2026 19:07:46 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1842+133 this year
1709 → 1842 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
33rdup 1 place on the latest list
42nd → 33rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1992+94 this year
1898 → 1992 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
31stheld on the latest list
29th → 31st · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Norway by 150 points
How we got hereWe make Norway the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -108 edge into 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Ivory Coast
1.1
expected goals
Norway
1.5
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–110 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–28 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Ivory Coast 22 in 100, Norway 33 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Norway win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Norway win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Ivory Coast4-1-4-1
- 1Yahia FofanaG1621
- 17Guéla DouéD1811
- 7Odilon KossounouD1821
- 20Emmanuel AgbadouD1628
- 3Ghislain KonanD1623
- 18Ibrahim SangaréM1881
- 19Nicolas PépéM1842
- 8Franck KessiéM1680
- 26Christ Inao OulaïM1632
- 11Yan DiomandeM1841
- 9Ange-Yoan BonnyF1886
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Mohamed KonéG1539
- 23Alban LafontG1584
- 2Ousmane DiomandeD1869
- 5Wilfried SingoD1770
- 13Christopher OperiD1618
- 21Evan NdickaD1912
- 4Jean Michaël SeriM1586
- 6Seko FofanaM1817
- 25Parfait GuiagonM1603
- 10Simon AdingraF1821
- 15Amad DialloF1971
- 24Bazoumana TouréF1664
- 12Elye WahiF1608
- 14Oumar DiakitéF1601
- 22Evann GuessandF1843
Norway4-3-3
- 1Ørjan NylandG1647
- 16Marcus PedersenD1597
- 3Kristoffer AjerD1883
- 17Torbjørn HeggemD1755
- 5David Møller WolfeD1709
- 10Martin ØdegaardM2020
- 8Sander BergeM1880
- 6Patrick BergM1739
- 7Alexander SørlothF1910
- 9Erling HaalandF2081
- 20Antonio NusaF1794
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Sander TangvikG1634
- 13Egil SelvikG1529
- 4Leo ØstigårdD1674
- 15Fredrik André BjørkanD1744
- 24Sondre LangåsD1594
- 25Henrik Sælebakke FalchenerD1559
- 2Morten ThorsbyM1571
- 14Fredrik AursnesM1841
- 18Kristian ThorstvedtM1636
- 19Thelo AasgaardM1574
- 21Andreas SchjelderupF1852
- 22Oscar BobbM1862
- 26Julian RyersonD1928
- 11Jørgen Strand LarsenF1724
- 23Jens Petter HaugeM1759
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 16:21:19 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 39'A. Nusagoalassist M. Odegaard
- 60'A. Diallo for C. Inao Oulaisub
- 60'E. Wahi for A. Bonnysub
- 71'O. Bobb for A. Sorlothsub
- 71'A. Schjelderup for A. Nusasub
- 74'A. Diallogoalassist N. Pepe
- 83'F. Aursnes for M. Pedersensub
- 86'E. Haalandgoalassist P. Berg
- 87'O. Diakite for N. Pepesub
- 90+3'E. Guessand for Y. Diomandesub
- 90+3'B. Toure for G. Konansub
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 19:19:55 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Norway to win at 49%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway: the Norway win, an outcome we had at 49 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Ivory Coast -21 and Norway +21.
On our player board, the squads moved Ivory Coast -74 (16 appearances) · Norway +75 (14 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -108 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 26/25/49 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Norway · 49%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Ivory Coast v Norway before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.