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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Tue 30 Jun · 17:00 UTC · 19:00 CEST

full time

Ivory Coast1–2Norway

1842+133rating2012+11333rdup 1fifa31st

Called it. As forecast.

Norway to win

home 26%draw 25%away 49% ✓

sealed Sun 28 Jun · 19:07 UTC · 21:07 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Sun, 28 Jun 2026 19:07:46 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Ivory Coast

ProofXI rating

1842+133 this year

1709 → 1842 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

33rdup 1 place on the latest list

42nd → 33rd · 6 lists

Norway

ProofXI rating

2012+113 this year

1899 → 2012 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

31stheld on the latest list

29th → 31st · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Norway by 170 points

How we got hereWe make Norway the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Ivory Coast rating edge-108
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-108

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -108 edge into 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Ivory Coast

1.1

expected goals

Norway

1.5

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–110 in 100
  • 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–28 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Ivory Coast 22 in 100, Norway 33 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Norway win on the road.✓ right
  • No blowout: Norway win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Ivory Coast4-1-4-1

  1. 1Yahia FofanaG~1590 provisional
  2. 17Guéla DouéD~1830 provisional
  3. 7Odilon KossounouD1815
  4. 20Emmanuel AgbadouD1602
  5. 3Ghislain KonanD~1595 provisional
  6. 18Ibrahim SangaréM1895
  7. 19Nicolas PépéM~1909 provisional
  8. 8Franck KessiéM1669
  9. 26Christ Inao OulaïM~1690 provisional
  10. 11Yan DiomandeM~1884 provisional
  11. 9Ange-Yoan BonnyF~1879 provisional

4 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Norway4-3-3

  1. 1Ørjan NylandG~1716 provisional
  2. 16Marcus PedersenD1544
  3. 3Kristoffer AjerD1885
  4. 17Torbjørn HeggemD~1779 provisional
  5. 5David Møller WolfeD1723
  6. 10Martin ØdegaardM2384
  7. 8Sander BergeM1837
  8. 6Patrick BergM1847
  9. 7Alexander SørlothF1959
  10. 9Erling HaalandF2343
  11. 20Antonio NusaF1807

9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 16:21:19 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 39'A. Nusagoalassist M. Odegaard
  2. 60'A. Diallo for C. Inao Oulaisub
  3. 60'E. Wahi for A. Bonnysub
  4. 71'O. Bobb for A. Sorlothsub
  5. 71'A. Schjelderup for A. Nusasub
  6. 74'A. Diallogoalassist N. Pepe
  7. 83'F. Aursnes for M. Pedersensub
  8. 86'E. Haalandgoalassist P. Berg
  9. 87'O. Diakite for N. Pepesub
  10. 90+3'E. Guessand for Y. Diomandesub
  11. 90+3'B. Toure for G. Konansub

source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 19:19:55 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed Norway to win at 49%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway: the Norway win, an outcome we had at 49 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Ivory Coast -21 and Norway +21.

On our player board, the squads moved Ivory Coast -148 (16 appearances) · Norway +132 (14 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -108 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 26/25/49 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Norway · 49%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Ivory Coast v Norway before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.