full time
Colombia1–0Congo DR
Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · 48,071 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Colombia to win
sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:46:42 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2055+27 this year
2028 → 2055 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
13thheld on the latest list
13th → 13th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1768+85 this year
1683 → 1768 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
46thheld on the latest list
56th → 46th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Colombia by 287 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Colombia took it.
1 prior meeting · Colombia 1, drawn 0, Congo DR 0 · goals 1-0
- 2026Colombia 1-0 DR Congo· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Colombia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +299 edge into 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Colombia
1.8
expected goals
Congo DR
0.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–013 in 100
- 2–012 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Colombia 46 in 100, Congo DR 16 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Colombia win at home.✓ right
- Colombia win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Colombia keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Colombia4-2-3-1
- 12Camilo VargasG1578
- 2Daniel MuñozD1885
- 23Davinson SánchezD1792
- 3Jhon LucumíD1735
- 17Johan MojicaD1730
- 16Jefferson LermaM1816
- 14Gustavo PuertaM1673
- 11Jhon AriasM1882
- 10James RodríguezF1536
- 7Luis DíazF2064
- 25Luis Javier SuárezF2016
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 24Álvaro MonteroG1611
- 1David OspinaG~1821 provisional
- 13Yerry MinaD1733
- 18Willer DittaD1836
- 22Deiver MachadoD1652
- 4Santiago AriasD1624
- 21Jaminton CampazM1768
- 6Richard RíosM1876
- 8Jorge CarrascalM1924
- 26Andrés GómezF1726
- 15Juan PortillaM1848
- 20Juan Fernando QuinteroM1786
- 5Kevin CastañoM1840
- 19Cucho HernándezF1931
- 9Jhon CórdobaF1596
DR Congo5-3-2
- 1Lionel Mpasi NzauG1584
- 2Aaron Wan-BissakaD1766
- 22Chancel MbembaD1714
- 4Axel TuanzebeD1681
- 3Steve KapuadiD1534
- 26Arthur MasuakuD1551
- 6Ngal'ayel MukauM1738
- 8Samuel MoutoussamyM1517
- 25Edo KayembeM1488
- 17Cédric BakambuF1741
- 20Yoane WissaF1901
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 21Matthieu EpoloG1514
- 16Timothy FayuluG~1502 provisional
- 24Gedeon KaluluD1514
- 12Joris KayembeD1525
- 5Dylan BatubinsikaD1515
- 15Aaron TshibolaM1472
- 11Gaël KakutaM1468
- 18Charles PickelM1624
- 9Brian CipengaF1524
- 14Noah SadikiM1766
- 7Nathanaël MbukuF1546
- 23Simon BanzaF1545
- 13Meschak EliaF1535
- 19Fiston MayeleF1526
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:21:13 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'N. Sadiki for N. Mukausub
- 57'S. Banza for C. Bakambusub
- 58'J. Cordoba for L. Suarezsub
- 58'J. Quintero for J. Rodriguezsub
- 72'J. Kayembe for A. Masuakusub
- 72'C. Pickel for E. Kayembesub
- 76'D. Munozgoalassist J. Quintero
- 77'R. Rios for J. Ariassub
- 82'N. Mbuku for S. Moutoussamysub
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:42:20 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Colombia 1-0 Congo DR
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Colombia to win at 68%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Colombia 1-0 Congo DR: the Colombia win, an outcome we had at 68 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Colombia win comfortably, by two goals or more.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Colombia +8 and Congo DR -8.
On our player board, the squads moved Colombia +43 (14 appearances) · Congo DR -71 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +299 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 68/20/12 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Colombia · 68%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Colombia v Congo DR before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.