full time
Uzbekistan1–3Colombia
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · 83,264 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Colombia to win
sealed Tue 16 Jun · 16:20 UTC · 18:20 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Tue, 16 Jun 2026 16:20:55 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1838+19 this year
1819 → 1838 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
50thheld on the latest list
50th → 50th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2055+27 this year
2028 → 2055 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
13thheld on the latest list
13th → 13th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Colombia by 217 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Colombia took it.
1 prior meeting · Uzbekistan 0, drawn 0, Colombia 1 · goals 1-3
- 2026Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Colombia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -239 edge into 16% / 22% / 62% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Uzbekistan
0.9
expected goals
Colombia
1.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–112 in 100
- 1–112 in 100
- 0–211 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–210 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Uzbekistan 18 in 100, Colombia 42 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Colombia win on the road.✓ right
- Colombia win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Colombia keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Uzbekistan3-4-2-1
- 1Utkir YusupovG1528
- 5Rustam AshurmatovD1531
- 2Abdukodir KhusanovD1915
- 18Abdulla AbdullaevD~1553 provisional
- 24Bekhruz KarimovM1500
- 6Akmal MozgovoyM1534
- 7Otabek ShukurovM1521
- 13Sherzod NasrullaevM1509
- 22Abbosbek FayzullaevF1582
- 11Oston UrunovF1522
- 14Eldor ShomurodovF1596
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Abduvokhid NematovG1473
- 16Botirali ErgashevG~1547 provisional
- 3Khozhiakbar AlizhonovD1538
- 4Farrukh SayfievD~1531 provisional
- 15Umarbek EshmuradovD1543
- 25Avazbek UlmasaliyevD~1553 provisional
- 26Jakhongir UrozovD1514
- 8Jamshid IskandarovM1531
- 9Odiljon KhamrobekovM1521
- 10Ruslanbek JiyanovMunrated
- 17Dostonbek KhamdamovM1522
- 19Azizjon GanievM1513
- 23Sherzod EsanovM1544
- 20Azizbek AmanovF1547
- 21Igor SergeevF1522
Colombia4-2-3-1
- 12Camilo VargasG1578
- 2Daniel MuñozD1885
- 23Davinson SánchezD1792
- 3Jhon LucumíD1735
- 17Johan MojicaD1730
- 16Jefferson LermaM1816
- 14Gustavo PuertaM1673
- 11Jhon AriasM1882
- 10James RodríguezM1536
- 7Luis DíazM2064
- 25Luis Javier SuárezF2016
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 24Álvaro MonteroG1611
- 1David OspinaG~1821 provisional
- 22Deiver MachadoD1652
- 4Santiago AriasD1624
- 18Willer DittaD1836
- 13Yerry MinaD1733
- 5Kevin CastañoM1840
- 6Richard RíosM1876
- 8Jorge CarrascalM1924
- 15Juan PortillaM1848
- 20Juan Fernando QuinteroM1786
- 21Jaminton CampazM1768
- 26Andrés GómezF1726
- 9Jhon CórdobaF1596
- 19Cucho HernándezF1931
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 01:20:45 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 40'D. Munozgoalassist L. Diaz
- 46'D. Khamdamov for O. Urunovsub
- 46'F. Sayfiev for S. Nasrullaevsub
- 60'A. Fayzullaevgoal
- 65'L. Diazgoalassist G. Puerta
- 72'J. Campaz for J. Rodriguezsub
- 77'A. Amonov for A. Fayzullaevsub
- 77'J. Urozov for R. Ashurmatovsub
- 80'C. Hernandez for L. Suarezsub
- 80'R. Rios for G. Puertasub
- 90+3'A. Gomez for L. Diazsub
- 90+3'K. Castano for J. Ariassub
- 90+3'I. Sergeev for E. Shomurodovsub
- 90+9'J. Campazgoalassist C. Hernandez
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 05:14:31 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Colombia to win at 62%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia: the Colombia win, an outcome we had at 62 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Colombia keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Uzbekistan -15 and Colombia +15.
On our player board, the squads moved Uzbekistan -100 (14 appearances) · Colombia +67 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -239 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 16/22/62 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Colombia · 62%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Uzbekistan v Colombia before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.