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Sun 28 Jun · 02:00 UTC · 04:00 CEST · Group J

full time

Algeria3–3Austria

1857+40rating1890-828thfifa24th
R. Aït-Nouri1962talismanK. Laimer1987

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · 27°C thunderstorm · 76,416 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Honours even

home 35%draw 26% ✓away 39%

sealed Fri 26 Jun · 19:39 UTC · 21:39 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Fri, 26 Jun 2026 19:39:35 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

weather at kickoff · Kansas City · source open-meteo.com

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Algeria

ProofXI rating

1857+40 this year

1817 → 1857 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

28thheld on the latest list

34th → 28th · 6 lists

Austria

ProofXI rating

1890-8 this year

1898 → 1890 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

24thheld on the latest list

24th → 24th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Austria by 33 points

Head to head

Austria have had the better of this fixture.

2 prior meetings · Algeria 0, drawn 1, Austria 1 · goals 3-5

  1. 2026Algeria 3-3 Austria· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  2. 1982Algeria 0-2 Austria· FIFA World Cup· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Austria the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Algeria rating edge-21
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-21

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -21 edge into 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Algeria

1.3

expected goals

Austria

1.3

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–19 in 100
  • 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–28 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Algeria 26 in 100, Austria 28 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Algeria and Austria share the points.✓ right
  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Algeria4-3-3

  1. 16Oussama BenbotG1571
  2. 17Rafik BelghaliD1582
  3. 2Aïssa MandiD1742
  4. 21Ramy BensebainiD1867
  5. 13Jaouen HadjamD1599
  6. 8Houssem AouarM1614
  7. 19Nabil BentalebM1764
  8. 22Ibrahim MazaM1873
  9. 7Riyad MahrezF1636
  10. 9Amine GouiriF1779
  11. 10Farès ChaïbiF1723

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Austria4-2-3-1

  1. 1Alexander SchlagerG1562
  2. 5Stefan PoschD1803
  3. 15Philipp LienhartD1789
  4. 8David AlabaD1897
  5. 16Phillipp MweneD1739
  6. 6Nicolas SeiwaldM1803
  7. 4Xaver SchlagerM1787
  8. 18Romano SchmidM1611
  9. 20Konrad LaimerM1987
  10. 9Marcel SabitzerM1887
  11. 7Marko ArnautovićF1601

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 01:21:10 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 28'M. Arnautovicgoalassist D. Alaba
  2. 45'R. Belghaligoal
  3. 46'M. Gregoritsch for M. Arnautovicsub
  4. 46'F. Grillitsch for X. Schlagersub
  5. 46'P. Wanner for R. Schmidsub
  6. 55'M. Sabitzergoalassist K. Laimer
  7. 60'R. Mahrezgoalassist H. Aouar
  8. 62'K. Danso for D. Alabasub
  9. 71'R. Ait-Nouri for J. Hadjamsub
  10. 71'Z. Belaid for A. Gouirisub
  11. 71'S. Chergui for R. Belghalisub
  12. 90+3'R. Mahrezgoalassist H. Aouar
  13. 90+4'F. Ghedjemis for H. Aouarsub
  14. 90+5'S. Kalajdzic for P. Mwenesub
  15. 90+6'S. Kalajdzicgoalassist M. Gregoritsch

source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 04:59:38 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Algeria 3-3 Austria

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Honours even at 39%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Algeria 3-3 Austria: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Algeria +1 and Austria -1.

On our player board, the squads moved Algeria +16 (15 appearances) · Austria -12 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -21 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 35/26/39 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 39%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Algeria v Austria before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.