Marko Arnautovic

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
36
sourced with the squad
position
Offence
Austria
club tier
1586
ClubElo strength
our board
#1207
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
1511′
26 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
2.00
77th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Goals for Austria, on the record and counted.

goals
2
assists
0

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad: Austria · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1563 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1601 full roster Elo (+37 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Austria's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1568
age curve at 36 (offences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls: -22
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +17
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1563
form: national-team results, 26 appearances1511 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +37
full roster Elo · with results: 1601

Where the +17 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 2.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 77th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(77.4th) = 46 × 0.75 × 0.5 (position weight) = +17

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-28. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#1207 of 1424 rated players on our board.
vs his seed
The folded nights have added +37 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€0.9m–€3.7m ≈ €1.9m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 1586the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×1.33
ageage 36, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year: ×0.17
attacker fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×1.00
individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide: ×1.00
our estimate: ≈ €1.9m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €11m (2024-07). Our estimate today: ≈ €1.9m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: richly priced , we rate him 83% below his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

2025-07-21Inter → FK Crvena Zvezdafree
2024-07-01Bologna → Inter€11m
2023-08-16Bologna → Interloan
2021-08-01SHANGHAI SIPG → Bologna€2.7m

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Austria’s record

at Algeria3–3Called it
at Argentina2–0Called it
v Jordan3–1Called it

The newsroom’s calls on Austria. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.