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Wed 17 Jun · 04:00 UTC · 06:00 CEST · Group J

full time

Austria3–1Jordan

1890-8rating1780+3624thfifa63rd
K. Laimer1987talismanMousa Tamari1609

Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Austria to win

home 50% ✓draw 25%away 25%

sealed Mon 15 Jun · 20:49 UTC · 22:49 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:49:12 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Austria

ProofXI rating

1890-8 this year

1898 → 1890 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

24thheld on the latest list

24th → 24th · 6 lists

Jordan

ProofXI rating

1780+36 this year

1744 → 1780 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

63rdheld on the latest list

64th → 63rd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Austria by 110 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and Austria took it.

1 prior meeting · Austria 1, drawn 0, Jordan 0 · goals 3-1

  1. 2026Austria 3-1 Jordan· FIFA World Cup· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Austria the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Austria rating edge+120
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+120

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +120 edge into 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Austria

1.5

expected goals

Jordan

1.1

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–011 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–09 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Austria 34 in 100, Jordan 22 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Austria win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: Austria win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Austria3-4-2-1

  1. 1Alexander SchlagerG1562
  2. 5Stefan PoschD1803
  3. 15Philipp LienhartD1789
  4. 8David AlabaD1897
  5. 16Phillipp MweneM1739
  6. 4Xaver SchlagerM1787
  7. 6Nicolas SeiwaldM1803
  8. 20Konrad LaimerM1987
  9. 18Romano SchmidF1611
  10. 9Marcel SabitzerF1887
  11. 14Saša KalajdžićF1602

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Jordan5-4-1

  1. 1Yazeed Abu LailaG1479
  2. 23Ehsan HaddadD1547
  3. 3Abdallah NasibD1526
  4. 5Yazan Al-ArabD1534
  5. 16Mo AbualnadiD1504
  6. 20Mohannad Abu TahaD1521
  7. 10Mousa TamariM1609
  8. 21Nizar Al-RashdanM1528
  9. 8Noor Al-Deen Al RawabdehM1536
  10. 11Odeh FakhouryMunrated
  11. 9Ali OlwanF1507

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 03:20:52 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 21'R. Schmidgoalassist X. Schlager
  2. 46'M. Arnautovic for S. Kalajdzicsub
  3. 50'A. Olwangoalassist N. Al Rawabdeh
  4. 59'C. Chukwuemeka for X. Schlagersub
  5. 59'K. Danso for D. Alabasub
  6. 59'P. Wanner for P. Mwenesub
  7. 72'S. Obaid for M. Abualnadisub
  8. 76'Y. Al Arabgoal (o.g.)
  9. 81'S. Al Rosan for A. Nasibsub
  10. 81'M. Al Mardi for E. Haddadsub
  11. 83'P. Wimmer for R. Schmidsub
  12. 88'M. Al Daoud for M. Tamarisub
  13. 89'A. Azaizeh for O. Al Fakhourisub
  14. 90+12'M. Arnautovicgoal (pen)

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 07:21:16 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Austria 3-1 Jordan

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Austria to win at 50%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Austria 3-1 Jordan: the Austria win, an outcome we had at 50 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • No blowout: Austria win by a single goal at most, if at all.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Austria +24 and Jordan -24.

On our player board, the squads moved Austria +88 (16 appearances) · Jordan -121 (13 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +120 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 50/25/25 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Austria · 50%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Austria v Jordan before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.