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Sat 27 Jun · 00:00 UTC · 02:00 CEST · Group H

full time

Cape Verde Islands0–0Saudi Arabia

1685+71rating1681-1367thup 2fifa61st
João Paulo1576talismanHassan Tambakti1679

NRG Stadium, Houston · 72,220 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Honours even

home 37%draw 26% ✓away 37%

sealed Thu 25 Jun · 08:57 UTC · 10:57 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:57:48 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Cape Verde

ProofXI rating

1685+71 this year

1614 → 1685 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

67thup 2 places on the latest list

67th → 67th · 6 lists

Saudi Arabia

ProofXI rating

1681-13 this year

1694 → 1681 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

61stheld on the latest list

60th → 61st · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Cape Verde by 4 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and it finished level.

1 prior meeting · Cape Verde Islands 0, drawn 1, Saudi Arabia 0 · goals 0-0

  1. 2026Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia· FIFA World Cup· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Saudi Arabia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Cape Verde Islands rating edge-3
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-3

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -3 edge into 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Cape Verde Islands

1.3

expected goals

Saudi Arabia

1.3

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–19 in 100
  • 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–28 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Cape Verde Islands 27 in 100, Saudi Arabia 27 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Cape Verde Islands and Saudi Arabia share the points.✓ right
  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Cape Verde4-2-3-1

  1. 1VozinhaG1554
  2. 24Wagner PinaD1576
  3. 3Diney BorgesD1553
  4. 4PicoD1542
  5. 8João PauloD1576
  6. 6Kevin LeniniM1561
  7. 14Deroy DuarteM1524
  8. 20Ryan MendesM1480
  9. 10Jamiro MonteiroM1523
  10. 17Willy SemedoM1510
  11. 19Dailon Rocha LivramentoF1459

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Saudi Arabia4-4-2

  1. 21Mohammed Al-OwaisG1554
  2. 13Nawaf BoushalD1635
  3. 4Abdulelah Al-AmriD1588
  4. 5Hassan TambaktiD1679
  5. 6Nasser Al-DawsariM1623
  6. 12Saud AbdulhamidD1597
  7. 15Abdullah Al-KhaibariM1580
  8. 23Mohamed KannoF1564
  9. 10Salem Al-DawsariM1588
  10. 9Firas Al-BuraikanF1568
  11. 20Sultan MandashM1582

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 23:20:52 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 33'A. Lajami for H. Tambaktisub
  2. 46'M. Al Juwayr for A. Al Khaibarisub
  3. 61'N. Da Costa for D. Livramentosub
  4. 61'H. Varela for W. Semedosub
  5. 66'M. Abu Al Shamat for S. Al Dawsarisub
  6. 66'A. Al Hamdan for S. Mandashsub
  7. 71'G. Rodrigues for R. Mendessub
  8. 71'L. Duarte for J. Monteirosub
  9. 82'M. Al Harbi for N. Boushalsub
  10. 90+4'S. Moreira for W. Pinasub

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 02:22:52 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Saudi Arabia

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Honours even at 37%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Saudi Arabia: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Cape Verde Islands +0 and Saudi Arabia +0.

On our player board, the squads moved Cape Verde Islands +18 (15 appearances) · Saudi Arabia -14 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -3 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 37/26/37 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 37%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Cape Verde Islands v Saudi Arabia before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.