full time
Iran2–2New Zealand
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · 70,240 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Iran to win
sealed Fri 12 Jun · 10:06 UTC · 12:06 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Fri, 12 Jun 2026 10:06:53 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1896-38 this year
1934 → 1896 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
20thup 1 place on the latest list
20th → 20th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1757-57 this year
1814 → 1757 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
85thheld on the latest list
87th → 85th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Iran by 139 points
Head to head
Iran have had the better of this fixture.
3 prior meetings · Iran 1, drawn 2, New Zealand 0 · goals 5-2
- 2026Iran 2-2 New Zealand· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2003Iran 3-0 New Zealand· Friendly
- 1973New Zealand 0-0 Iran· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Iran the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +172 edge into 56% / 24% / 21% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Iran
1.6
expected goals
New Zealand
1.0
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–011 in 100
- 2–010 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Iran 37 in 100, New Zealand 20 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Iran win at home.✗ wrong
- Iran win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Iran4-4-2
- 1Alireza BeiranvandG1629
- 23Ramin RezaeianD1587
- 19Ali NematiD~1597 provisional
- 4Shoja KhalilzadehD1589
- 5Milad MohammadiD1606
- 17Aria YousefiM1579
- 14Saman GhoddosM1595
- 6Saeid EzatolahiM1588
- 8Mohammad MohebiM1560
- 20Shahriar MoghanlouF1592
- 9Mehdi TaremiF1698
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Payam NiazmandG~1596 provisional
- 22Hossein HosseiniG1604
- 2Saleh HardaniD1595
- 13Hossein KanaaniD1615
- 3Ehsan HajsafiD1569
- 15Roozbeh CheshmiM1563
- 25Danial EiriD~1562 provisional
- 26Amirmohammad RazzaghiniaM~1575 provisional
- 10Mehdi GhayediFunrated
- 21Mohammad GhorbaniM1594
- 16Mahdi TorabiM1573
- 11Ali AlipourF1601
- 18Amirhossein HosseinzadehF1603
- 7Alireza JahanbakhshF1455
- 24Dennis Eckert AyensaF1648
New Zealand4-2-3-1
- 1Max CrocombeG1598
- 2Tim PayneD1535
- 16Finn SurmanD1539
- 5Michael BoxallD1497
- 13Liberato CacaceD1580
- 6Joe BellM1537
- 8Marko StamenićM1567
- 20Callum McCowattM1557
- 10Sarpreet SinghM1531
- 11Elijah JustM1569
- 9Chris WoodF1815
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Alex PaulsenG1526
- 22Michael WoudG~1533 provisional
- 26Tommy SmithD~1537 provisional
- 3Francis De VriesD1551
- 15Nando PijnakerD1553
- 24Callan ElliotD1556
- 4Tyler BindonD1555
- 21Jesse RandallF1532
- 19Benjamin OldF1537
- 23Ryan ThomasM1520
- 25Lachlan BaylissM1549
- 14Alex RuferM1544
- 18Ben WaineF~1538 provisional
- 17Kosta BarbarousesF1524
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:30:39 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 7'E. Justgoalassist C. Wood
- 32'R. Rezaeiangoal
- 46'M. Ghaedi for A. Yousefisub
- 53'A. Alipour for S. Moghanlousub
- 54'E. Justgoalassist C. Wood
- 64'M. Mohebigoalassist R. Rezaeian
- 65'E. Hajsafi for S. Ghoddossub
- 68'B. Old for L. Cacacesub
- 68'R. Thomas for C. McCowattsub
- 78'C. Elliot for T. Paynesub
- 80'A. Hosseinzadeh for M. Taremisub
- 90+2'J. Randall for S. Singhsub
- 90+2'T. Bindon for M. Stamenicsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 18:00:13 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Iran 2-2 New Zealand
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Iran to win at 56%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Iran 2-2 New Zealand: the draw, an outcome we had at 24 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Iran win at home.
- Iran win comfortably, by two goals or more.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Iran -12 and New Zealand +12.
On our player board, the squads moved Iran -49 (13 appearances) · New Zealand +71 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +172 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 56/24/21 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Iran · 56%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Iran v New Zealand before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.