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Thu 25 Jun · 20:00 UTC · 22:00 CEST · Group E

full time

Curaçao0–2Ivory Coast

1600+87rating1796+8782ndfifa33rdup 1
A. Obispo1705talismanA. Diallo1972

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · 69,796 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Ivory Coast to win

home 16%draw 22%away 61% ✓

sealed Tue 23 Jun · 19:53 UTC · 21:53 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:53:15 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Curaçao

ProofXI rating

1600+87 this year

1513 → 1600 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

82ndheld on the latest list

82nd → 82nd · 6 lists

Ivory Coast

ProofXI rating

1796+87 this year

1709 → 1796 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

33rdup 1 place on the latest list

42nd → 33rd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Ivory Coast by 196 points

How we got hereWe make Ivory Coast the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Curaçao rating edge-229
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-229

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -229 edge into 16% / 22% / 61% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Curaçao

0.9

expected goals

Ivory Coast

1.7

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 0–112 in 100
  • 1–112 in 100
  • 0–211 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–210 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Curaçao 18 in 100, Ivory Coast 41 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Ivory Coast win on the road.✓ right
  • Ivory Coast win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • Ivory Coast keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Curaçao5-3-2

  1. 1E. RoomG1449
  2. 20J. BrenetD1509
  3. 3J. GaariD1464
  4. 18A. ObispoD1705
  5. 5S. FloranusD1486
  6. 24Deveron FonvilleD1510
  7. 21T. ChongF1547
  8. 10L. BacunaM1449
  9. 8L. ComenenciaM1486
  10. 9J. LocadiaF1459
  11. 7J. BacunaF1374

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Ivory Coast4-4-2

  1. 1Y. FofanaG1629
  2. 17G. DouéD1817
  3. 7O. KossounouD1829
  4. 2O. DiomandeD1869
  5. 13C. OperiD1618
  6. 15A. DialloF1972
  7. 18I. SangaréM1889
  8. 8F. KessiéM1687
  9. 11Y. DiomandeF1847
  10. 19N. PépéF1844
  11. 9A. BonnyF1893

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:31:22 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 7'Nicolas Pépégoalassist Yan Diomande
  2. 45'Christ Inao Oulaï for Amad Diallosub
  3. 61'Jeremy Antonisse for Livano Comenenciasub
  4. 64'Nicolas Pépégoalassist Ibrahim Sangaré
  5. 67'Oumar Diakité for Ange-Yoan Bonnysub
  6. 67'Sepe Elye Wahi for Nicolas Pépésub
  7. 67'Bazoumana Touré for Yan Diomandesub
  8. 77'Gervane Kastaneer for Jurien Gaarisub
  9. 77'Tyrese Noslin for Deveron Fonvillesub
  10. 77'Jean Michaël Seri for Franck Kessiésub
  11. 90'Shurandy Sambo for Joshua Brenetsub
  12. 90'Brandley Kuwas for Jürgen Locadiasub

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 25 Jun 2026 22:06:21 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed Ivory Coast to win at 61%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast: the Ivory Coast win, an outcome we had at 61 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Curaçao -19 and Ivory Coast +19.

On our player board, the squads moved Curaçao -67 (16 appearances) · Ivory Coast +65 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -229 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 16/22/61 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Ivory Coast · 61%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Curaçao v Ivory Coast before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.