full time
Ecuador0–0Curaçao
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · 76,416 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Ecuador to win
sealed Thu 18 Jun · 20:15 UTC · 22:15 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:15:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2023+30 this year
1993 → 2023 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
23rdheld on the latest list
23rd → 23rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1600+87 this year
1513 → 1600 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
82ndheld on the latest list
82nd → 82nd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Ecuador by 423 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and it finished level.
1 prior meeting · Ecuador 0, drawn 1, Curaçao 0 · goals 0-0
- 2026Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Ecuador the stronger side, and seal the call at about 8 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +389 edge into 75% / 17% / 8% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Ecuador
2.0
expected goals
Curaçao
0.6
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 2–014 in 100
- 1–014 in 100
- 1–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 3–09 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Ecuador 53 in 100, Curaçao 14 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Ecuador win at home.✗ wrong
- Ecuador win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Ecuador keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Ecuador3-1-4-2
- 1Hernán GalíndezG1596
- 21Alan FrancoD1708
- 6Willian PachoD2037
- 3Piero HincapiéD2057
- 5Jordy AlcivarM1728
- 9John YeboahM1666
- 15Pedro ViteM1666
- 23Moisés CaicedoM1868
- 7Pervis EstupiñánM1838
- 19Gonzalo PlataF1892
- 13Enner ValenciaF1578
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Moisés RamírezG1426
- 22Gonzalo ValleG1707
- 26Yaimar MedinaD1662
- 4Joel OrdóñezD1891
- 25Jackson PorozoD1631
- 2Félix TorresD1858
- 17Ángelo PreciadoD1720
- 20Nilson AnguloF1815
- 10Kendry PáezM1553
- 18Denil CastilloM1751
- 11Kevin RodriguezF1768
- 16Jordy CaicedoF1601
- 24Jeremy ArevaloF1784
- 8Anthony ValenciaF1571
- 14Alan MindaF1741
Curaçao5-4-1
- 1Eloy RoomG1449
- 20Joshua BrenetD1509
- 3Jurien GaariD1464
- 18Armando ObispoD1705
- 5Sherel Constancio FloranusD1486
- 24Deveron FonvilleD1510
- 21Tahith ChongM1547
- 8Livano ComenenciaM1486
- 10Leandro BacunaM1449
- 7Juninho BacunaM1374
- 9Jürgen LocadiaF1459
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 25Tyrick BodakG~1337 provisional
- 26Trevor Iriving DoornbuschG1475
- 2Shurandy SamboD1422
- 4Roshon van EijmaD1496
- 23Riechedly BazoerD1498
- 15Ar'Jany MarthaM1492
- 16Jearl MargarithaF1454
- 14Kenji GorréF1493
- 13Tyrese NoslinM1405
- 11Jeremy AntonisseF1476
- 22Kevin FelidaM1478
- 6Godfried RoemeratoeM1478
- 19Gervane KastaneerF1486
- 17Brandley KuwasF1326
- 12Sontje HansenF1557
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:07:26 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'K. Rodriguez for J. Alcivarsub
- 70'N. Angulo for P. Estupinansub
- 75'K. Gorre for J. Bacunasub
- 76'R. van Eijma for D. Fonvillesub
- 76'J. Margaritha for T. Chongsub
- 83'A. Preciado for A. Francosub
- 83'G. Kastaneer for J. Locadiasub
- 84'G. Roemeratoe for L. Comenenciasub
- 89'J. Caicedo for J. Yeboahsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 21 Jun 2026 01:58:25 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Ecuador to win at 75%, about 8 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao: the draw, an outcome we had at 17 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Ecuador win at home.
- Ecuador win comfortably, by two goals or more.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Ecuador -23 and Curaçao +23.
On our player board, the squads moved Ecuador -39 (15 appearances) · Curaçao +70 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +389 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 75/17/8 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Ecuador · 75%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Ecuador v Curaçao before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.