full time
Ivory Coast1–0Ecuador
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · 69,796 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Ecuador to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1796+87 this year
1709 → 1796 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
33rdup 1 place on the latest list
42nd → 33rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2023+30 this year
1993 → 2023 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
23rdheld on the latest list
23rd → 23rd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Ecuador by 227 points
How we got hereWe make Ecuador the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -212 edge into 18% / 23% / 60% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Ivory Coast
0.9
expected goals
Ecuador
1.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–112 in 100
- 0–112 in 100
- 0–211 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–210 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Ivory Coast 19 in 100, Ecuador 40 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Ecuador win on the road.✗ wrong
- Ecuador win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Ivory Coast4-4-2
- 1Yahia FofanaG1629
- 17Guéla DouéD1817
- 5Wilfried SingoD1770
- 20Emmanuel AgbadouD1634
- 3Ghislain KonanD1630
- 11Yan DiomandeM1847
- 6Seko FofanaM1817
- 8Franck KessiéM1687
- 24Bazoumana TouréM1664
- 19Nicolas PépéF1844
- 12Elye WahiF1612
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Mohamed KonéG1539
- 23Alban LafontG1584
- 13Christopher OperiD1618
- 2Ousmane DiomandeD1869
- 7Odilon KossounouD1829
- 21Evan NdickaD1912
- 18Ibrahim SangaréM1889
- 25Parfait GuiagonM1603
- 15Amad DialloF1972
- 10Simon AdingraF1821
- 26Christ Inao OulaïM1636
- 4Jean Michaël SeriM1586
- 22Evann GuessandF1843
- 9Ange-Yoan BonnyF1893
- 14Oumar DiakitéF1602
Ecuador3-4-3
- 1Hernán GalíndezG1596
- 4Joel OrdóñezD1891
- 6Willian PachoD2037
- 3Piero HincapiéD2057
- 14Alan MindaM1741
- 21Alan FrancoM1708
- 23Moisés CaicedoM1868
- 15Pedro ViteM1666
- 19Gonzalo PlataF1892
- 13Enner ValenciaF1578
- 9John YeboahF1666
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Gonzalo ValleG1707
- 12Moisés RamírezG1426
- 26Yaimar MedinaD1662
- 25Jackson PorozoD1631
- 2Félix TorresD1858
- 20Nilson AnguloF1815
- 10Kendry PáezM1553
- 7Pervis EstupiñánD1838
- 5Jordy AlcivarM1728
- 17Ángelo PreciadoD1720
- 18Denil CastilloM1751
- 16Jordy CaicedoF1601
- 8Anthony ValenciaF1571
- 24Jeremy ArevaloF1784
- 11Kevin RodriguezF1768
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:35:47 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 56'N. Angulo for A. Mindasub
- 56'A. Bonny for E. Wahisub
- 56'A. Diallo for B. Touresub
- 62'A. Preciado for J. Yeboahsub
- 62'J. Porozo for A. Francosub
- 77'C. Inao Oulai for N. Pepesub
- 77'I. Sangare for S. Fofanasub
- 77'K. Rodriguez for E. Valenciasub
- 89'O. Kossounou for G. Douesub
- 90'A. Diallogoalassist W. Singo
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 02:05:55 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Ecuador to win at 60%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador: the Ivory Coast win, an outcome we had at 18 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Ecuador win on the road.
- Ecuador win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Ivory Coast +46 and Ecuador -46.
On our player board, the squads moved Ivory Coast +101 (16 appearances) · Ecuador -96 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -212 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 18/23/60 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Ecuador · 60%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Ivory Coast v Ecuador before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.