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Fri 19 Jun · 22:00 UTC · Sat 00:00 CEST · Group C

full time

Scotland0–1Morocco

1819+34rating1984+8142ndup 1fifa7thup 1
J. McGinn1956talismanA. Hakimi2043

Gillette Stadium, Boston · 65,878 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Morocco to win

home 23%draw 24%away 52% ✓

sealed Wed 17 Jun · 20:04 UTC · 22:04 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Wed, 17 Jun 2026 20:04:33 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Scotland

ProofXI rating

1819+34 this year

1785 → 1819 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

42ndup 1 place on the latest list

36th → 42nd · 6 lists

Morocco

ProofXI rating

1984+81 this year

1903 → 1984 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

7thup 1 place on the latest list

11th → 7th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Morocco by 165 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and Morocco took it.

1 prior meeting · Scotland 0, drawn 0, Morocco 1 · goals 0-3

  1. 1998Scotland 0-3 Morocco· FIFA World Cup· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Morocco the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Scotland rating edge-139
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-139

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -139 edge into 23% / 24% / 52% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Scotland

1.0

expected goals

Morocco

1.6

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–111 in 100
  • 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–29 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Scotland 21 in 100, Morocco 35 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Morocco win on the road.✓ right
  • No blowout: Morocco win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Scotland3-4-2-1

  1. 1Angus GunnG1826
  2. 5Grant HanleyD1553
  3. 13Jack HendryD1591
  4. 6Kieran TierneyD1601
  5. 22Nathan PattersonM1810
  6. 4Scott McTominayM1846
  7. 19Lewis FergusonM1753
  8. 3Andy RobertsonM1934
  9. 7John McGinnF1956
  10. 11Ryan ChristieF1878
  11. 10Che AdamsF1654

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Morocco4-2-3-1

  1. 1BonoG1678
  2. 2Achraf HakimiD2043
  3. 14Issa DiopD1875
  4. 18Chadi RiadD1875
  5. 3Noussair MazraouiD1955
  6. 24Neil El AynaouiM1916
  7. 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1815
  8. 10Brahim DíazM1982
  9. 8Azzedine OunahiM1723
  10. 23Bilal El KhannoussM1910
  11. 11Ismael SaibariF1877

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 19 Jun 2026 21:21:16 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 2'I. Saibarigoalassist B. Diaz
  2. 60'B. Gannon-Doak for K. Tierneysub
  3. 71'L. Dykes for C. Adamssub
  4. 71'K. McLean for R. Christiesub
  5. 84'S. Rahimi for I. Saibarisub
  6. 84'C. Talbi for B. El Khannousssub
  7. 84'A. Amaimouni for B. Diazsub
  8. 89'A. Ralston for N. Pattersonsub
  9. 89'R. Stewart for J. McGinnsub
  10. 90'S. El Mourabet for A. Ounahisub

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:01:57 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Scotland 0-1 Morocco

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Morocco to win at 52%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Scotland 0-1 Morocco: the Morocco win, an outcome we had at 52 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Scotland -19 and Morocco +19.

On our player board, the squads moved Scotland -75 (16 appearances) · Morocco +66 (15 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -139 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 23/24/52 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Morocco · 52%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Scotland v Morocco before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.