full time
Haiti0–1Scotland
Gillette Stadium, Boston · 65,878 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Scotland to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1684-25 this year
1709 → 1684 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
83rdheld on the latest list
84th → 83rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1819+34 this year
1785 → 1819 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
42ndup 1 place on the latest list
36th → 42nd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Scotland by 135 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Scotland took it.
1 prior meeting · Haiti 0, drawn 0, Scotland 1 · goals 0-1
- 2026Haiti 0-1 Scotland· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Scotland the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -135 edge into 24% / 25% / 52% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Haiti
1.1
expected goals
Scotland
1.5
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–111 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–29 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Haiti 21 in 100, Scotland 35 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Scotland win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Scotland win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
- 1Johny PlacideG1479
- 2Carlens ArcusD1591
- 4Ricardo AdéD1603
- 5Hannes DelcroixD1535
- 8Martin ExpérienceD1526
- 11Louicius Don DeedsonM1536
- 17Danley Jean JacquesM1505
- 10Jean-Ricner BellegardeM1673
- 15Ruben ProvidenceM1511
- 20Frantzdy PierrotF1528
- 18Wilson IsidorF1839
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 21Josué CasimirF1500
- 16Lenny JosephF1510
- 19Yassin FortuneF1531
- 12Alexandre PierreG~1505 provisional
- 23Josué DuvergerG~1516 provisional
- 3Keeto ThermoncyD~1511 provisional
- 13Duke LacroixD1535
- 14Garven-Michee MetusalaDunrated
- 22Jean-Kévin DuverneD1582
- 24Wilguens PaugainD1545
- 6Carl Fred SaintéM~1537 provisional
- 25Dominique SimonM1536
- 26Woodensky PierreM~1524 provisional
- 7Derrick EtienneF1521
- 9Duckens NazonF1546
- 1Angus GunnG1826
- 2Aaron HickeyD1896
- 5Grant HanleyD1553
- 13Jack HendryD1591
- 3Andy RobertsonD1934
- 17Ben Gannon-DoakM1893
- 4Scott McTominayM1846
- 19Lewis FergusonM1753
- 7John McGinnM1956
- 20Lawrence ShanklandF1583
- 10Che AdamsF1654
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Nathan PattersonD1810
- 11Ryan ChristieM1878
- 9Lyndon DykesF1566
- 23Kenny McLeanM1575
- 25Findlay CurtisF1538
- 12Liam KellyG1560
- 21Craig GordonG1528
- 6Kieran TierneyD1601
- 15John SouttarD1602
- 16Dominic HyamD1591
- 24Tony RalstonD1563
- 26Scott McKennaD1568
- 8Tyler FletcherM1866
- 14Ross StewartF1669
- 18George HirstF1693
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 14 Jun 2026 05:12:48 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 28'J. McGinngoal
- 61'J. Casimir for L. Deedsonsub
- 75'R. Christie for B. Gannon-Doaksub
- 75'N. Patterson for A. Hickeysub
- 75'L. Dykes for C. Adamssub
- 76'L. Joseph for W. Isidorsub
- 83'F. Curtis for J. McGinnsub
- 83'K. McLean for L. Shanklandsub
- 85'Y. Fortune for R. Providencesub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:14:24 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Haiti 0-1 Scotland
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Scotland to win at 52%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Haiti 0-1 Scotland: the Scotland win, an outcome we had at 52 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Haiti -16 and Scotland +16.
On our player board, the squads moved Haiti -88 (14 appearances) · Scotland +57 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -135 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 24/25/52 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Scotland · 52%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Haiti v Scotland before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.