full time
Egypt1–2Iran
Lumen Field, Seattle · 68,740 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Iran to win
sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1859+81 this year
1778 → 1859 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
29thheld on the latest list
35th → 29th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1893-14 this year
1907 → 1893 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
20thup 1 place on the latest list
20th → 20th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Iran by 34 points
Head to head
Every meeting between these two has finished level. Something has to give.
2 prior meetings · Egypt 0, drawn 2, Iran 0 · goals 2-2
- 2026Egypt 1-1 Iran· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2000Iran 1-1 Egypt· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Iran the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -38 edge into 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Egypt
1.2
expected goals
Iran
1.4
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Egypt 25 in 100, Iran 29 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Iran win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Iran win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Egypt4-2-3-1
- 23Mostafa ShobeirG~1598 provisional
- 3Mohamed HanyD~1629 provisional
- 6Mohamed AbdelmonemD~1632 provisional
- 5Rami RabiaD~1575 provisional
- 13Ahmed FatouhD~1621 provisional
- 21Mahmoud SaberM~1587 provisional
- 17Mohanad LasheenM~1584 provisional
- 11Mostafa ZikoM~1594 provisional
- 10Mohamed SalahM2307
- 8Emam AshourM1637
- 7Mahmoud TrézéguetF1593
3 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Mohamed El-ShenawyG~1556 provisional
- 16Mahdi SolimanG~1554 provisional
- 26Mohamed AlaaG~1553 provisional
- 2Yasser IbrahimD~1578 provisional
- 15Karim HafezD~1576 provisional
- 24Tarek AlaaD~1559 provisional
- 18Nabil DongaM~1537 provisional
- 19Marwan AttiaM~1603 provisional
- 12Haissem HassanF~1551 provisional
- 20Ibrahim AdelF~1580 provisional
- 25ZizoF~1565 provisional
- 9Hamza AbdelkarimF~1519 provisional
- 22Omar MarmoushF2065
Iran5-3-2
- 1Alireza BeiranvandG~1635 provisional
- 23Ramin RezaeianD~1592 provisional
- 13Hossein KanaaniD~1607 provisional
- 4Shoja KhalilzadehD~1591 provisional
- 19Ali NematiD~1597 provisional
- 5Milad MohammadiD~1601 provisional
- 14Saman GhoddosM1546
- 21Mohammad GhorbaniM~1595 provisional
- 6Saeid EzatolahiM~1589 provisional
- 9Mehdi TaremiF1740
- 8Mohammad MohebiF~1559 provisional
2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Payam NiazmandG~1596 provisional
- 22Hossein HosseiniG~1597 provisional
- 3Ehsan HajsafiD~1569 provisional
- 25Danial EiriD~1562 provisional
- 15Roozbeh CheshmiM~1570 provisional
- 2Saleh HardaniD~1606 provisional
- 17Aria YousefiD~1582 provisional
- 26Amirmohammad RazzaghiniaM~1575 provisional
- 10Mehdi GhayediFunrated
- 7Alireza JahanbakhshF1451
- 16Mahdi TorabiM~1573 provisional
- 11Ali AlipourF~1603 provisional
- 18Amirhossein HosseinzadehF~1604 provisional
- 20Shahriar MoghanlouF~1595 provisional
- 24Dennis Eckert AyensaF1615
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 02:22:47 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 5'M. Sabergoalassist Trezeguet
- 14'R. Rezaeiangoal
- 14'Y. Ibrahim for M. Abdelmonemsub
- 46'S. Hardani for H. Kanaanisub
- 46'O. Marmoush for E. Ashoursub
- 46'M. Attia for M. Sabersub
- 57'Zizo for M. Salahsub
- 67'S. Moghanlou for S. Ghoddossub
- 76'H. Abdelkarim for M. Zikosub
- 90+1'A. Jahanbakhsh for M. Mohebisub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 07:34:34 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Egypt 1-2 Iran
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Iran to win at 41%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Egypt 1-2 Iran: the Iran win, an outcome we had at 41 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Egypt -27 and Iran +27.
On our player board, the squads moved Egypt +4 (15 appearances) · Iran -5 (13 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -38 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 33/26/41 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Iran · 41%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Egypt v Iran before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.