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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Sat 13 Jun · 22:00 UTC · Sun 00:00 CEST · Group C

full time

Brazil1–1Morocco

2074-2rating2027+1186thfifa7thup 1

MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey · 82,500 seats

Missed it. It stays up.

Brazil to win

home 46%draw 25% ✓away 29%

sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted

Missed

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Brazil

ProofXI rating

2074-2 this year

2076 → 2074 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

6thheld on the latest list

5th → 6th · 6 lists

Morocco

ProofXI rating

2027+118 this year

1909 → 2027 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

7thup 1 place on the latest list

11th → 7th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Brazil by 47 points

Head to head

Brazil have had the better of this fixture.

3 prior meetings · Brazil 2, drawn 0, Morocco 1 · goals 6-2

  1. 2023Morocco 2-1 Brazil· Friendly
  2. 1998Brazil 3-0 Morocco· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  3. 1997Brazil 2-0 Morocco· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Brazil the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Brazil rating edge+83
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+83

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +83 edge into 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Brazil

1.5

expected goals

Morocco

1.1

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–010 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–08 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Brazil 32 in 100, Morocco 23 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Brazil win at home.✗ wrong
  • No blowout: Brazil win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Brazil4-2-3-1

  1. 1AlissonG2067
  2. 24Roger IbañezD1733
  3. 4MarquinhosD2065
  4. 3Gabriel MagalhãesD2299
  5. 16Douglas SantosD~1678 provisional
  6. 5CasemiroM2172
  7. 8Bruno GuimarãesM2236
  8. 11RaphinhaM2240
  9. 20Lucas PaquetáM2125
  10. 7Vinícius JúniorM2231
  11. 25Igor ThiagoF1961

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Morocco4-2-3-1

  1. 1BonoG1773
  2. 2Achraf HakimiD2090
  3. 14Issa DiopD~1887 provisional
  4. 18Chadi RiadD~1889 provisional
  5. 3Noussair MazraouiD2005
  6. 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1866
  7. 24Neil El AynaouiM1903
  8. 10Brahim DíazM2052
  9. 8Azzedine OunahiM1857
  10. 23Bilal El KhannoussM1911
  11. 11Ismael SaibariF1987

9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 13 Jun 2026 21:23:55 GMT

Full time

Missed it.

Brazil 1-1 Morocco

Verdict
wrong but well reasoned
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Brazil to win at 46%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Brazil 1-1 Morocco: the draw, an outcome we had at 25 in 100.

The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Brazil win at home.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Brazil -7 and Morocco +7.

On our player board, the squads moved Brazil -50 (16 appearances) · Morocco +102 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +83 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 46/25/29 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Brazil · 46%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Brazil v Morocco before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.