full time
Congo DR3–1Uzbekistan
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · 71,000 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Honours even
sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1809+110 this year
1699 → 1809 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
46thheld on the latest list
56th → 46th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1732-98 this year
1830 → 1732 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
50thheld on the latest list
50th → 50th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: DR Congo by 77 points
How we got hereWe make Uzbekistan the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -5 edge into 37% / 26% / 38% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Congo DR
1.3
expected goals
Uzbekistan
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–28 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Congo DR 27 in 100, Uzbekistan 27 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Congo DR and Uzbekistan share the points.✗ wrong
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
DR Congo4-4-2
- 1Lionel Mpasi NzauG~1607 provisional
- 2Aaron Wan-BissakaD1693
- 22Chancel MbembaD1745
- 4Axel TuanzebeD1603
- 26Arthur MasuakuD1554
- 7Nathanaël MbukuM~1548 provisional
- 8Samuel MoutoussamyM1527
- 14Noah SadikiM1790
- 9Brian CipengaM~1530 provisional
- 20Yoane WissaF1925
- 17Cédric BakambuF~1740 provisional
7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 21Matthieu EpoloG~1527 provisional
- 16Timothy FayuluG~1502 provisional
- 5Dylan BatubinsikaD1523
- 24Gedeon KaluluD~1543 provisional
- 12Joris KayembeD~1536 provisional
- 3Steve KapuadiD~1534 provisional
- 15Aaron TshibolaM~1475 provisional
- 18Charles PickelM~1615 provisional
- 11Gaël KakutaM~1483 provisional
- 10Théo BongondaM~1524 provisional
- 25Edo KayembeM~1512 provisional
- 6Ngal'ayel MukauM1744
- 19Fiston MayeleF~1532 provisional
- 13Meschak EliaF1514
- 23Simon BanzaF1543
Uzbekistan3-4-2-1
- 12Abduvokhid NematovG~1460 provisional
- 2Abdukodir KhusanovD1905
- 26Jakhongir UrozovD~1513 provisional
- 5Rustam AshurmatovD~1517 provisional
- 3Khozhiakbar AlizhonovM~1538 provisional
- 6Akmal MozgovoyM~1528 provisional
- 7Otabek ShukurovM~1504 provisional
- 13Sherzod NasrullaevM~1495 provisional
- 17Dostonbek KhamdamovF~1522 provisional
- 22Abbosbek FayzullaevF~1558 provisional
- 14Eldor ShomurodovF1633
2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Botirali ErgashevG~1547 provisional
- 1Utkir YusupovG~1512 provisional
- 25Avazbek UlmasaliyevD~1553 provisional
- 4Farrukh SayfievD~1531 provisional
- 15Umarbek EshmuradovD~1542 provisional
- 24Bekhruz KarimovD~1502 provisional
- 20Azizbek AmanovF~1549 provisional
- 8Jamshid IskandarovM~1533 provisional
- 11Oston UrunovM~1515 provisional
- 10Ruslanbek JiyanovMunrated
- 23Sherzod EsanovM~1544 provisional
- 18Abdulla AbdullaevM~1553 provisional
- 19Azizjon GanievM~1513 provisional
- 9Odiljon KhamrobekovM~1508 provisional
- 21Igor SergeevF~1527 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:58:53 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 10'E. Shomurodovgoalassist A. Mozgovoy
- 51'F. Mayele for C. Bakambusub
- 59'O. Khamrobekov for O. Shukurovsub
- 59'A. Ganiev for D. Khamdamovsub
- 68'Y. Wissagoal (pen)
- 72'T. Bongonda for B. Cipengasub
- 72'N. Mukau for S. Moutoussamysub
- 72'M. Elia for N. Mbukusub
- 73'O. Urunov for A. Fayzullaevsub
- 78'F. Mayelegoal
- 82'I. Sergeev for J. Urozovsub
- 82'J. Iskanderov for A. Mozgovoysub
- 83'J. Kayembe for A. Masuakusub
- 90+1'Y. Wissagoalassist M. Elia
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 01:54:21 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Congo DR 3-1 Uzbekistan
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Honours even at 38%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Congo DR 3-1 Uzbekistan: the Congo DR win, an outcome we had at 37 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Congo DR and Uzbekistan share the points.
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Congo DR +46 and Uzbekistan -46.
On our player board, the squads moved Congo DR +209 (16 appearances) · Uzbekistan -249 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -5 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 37/26/38 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 38%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Congo DR v Uzbekistan before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.