full time
Algeria3–3Austria
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · 76,416 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Honours even
sealed Fri 26 Jun · 19:39 UTC · 21:39 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Fri, 26 Jun 2026 19:39:35 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1858+45 this year
1813 → 1858 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
28thheld on the latest list
34th → 28th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1891-15 this year
1906 → 1891 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
24thheld on the latest list
24th → 24th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Austria by 33 points
Head to head
Austria have had the better of this fixture.
2 prior meetings · Algeria 0, drawn 1, Austria 1 · goals 3-5
- 2026Algeria 3-3 Austria· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 1982Algeria 0-2 Austria· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Austria the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -21 edge into 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Algeria
1.3
expected goals
Austria
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–28 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Algeria 26 in 100, Austria 28 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Algeria and Austria share the points.✓ right
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Algeria4-3-3
- 16Oussama BenbotG~1570 provisional
- 17Rafik BelghaliD~1540 provisional
- 2Aïssa MandiD1764
- 21Ramy BensebainiD1963
- 13Jaouen HadjamD~1580 provisional
- 8Houssem AouarM1655
- 19Nabil BentalebM~1778 provisional
- 22Ibrahim MazaM~1864 provisional
- 7Riyad MahrezF1672
- 9Amine GouiriF1804
- 10Farès ChaïbiF1731
6 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Melvin MastilG~1563 provisional
- 23Luca ZidaneG~1549 provisional
- 3Achref AbadaD~1594 provisional
- 4Mohamed TougaiD~1596 provisional
- 5Zineddine BelaidD~1606 provisional
- 15Rayan Aït-NouriD1952
- 26Samir Sophian CherguiD~1703 provisional
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM1702
- 14Hicham BoudaouiM1630
- 24Yassine TitraouiM~1615 provisional
- 11Anis Hadj MoussaF1677
- 20Adil BoulbinaF~1582 provisional
- 12Ahmed Nadhir BenboualiF~1584 provisional
- 25Farès GhedjemisF~1568 provisional
Austria4-2-3-1
- 1Alexander SchlagerG~1530 provisional
- 5Stefan PoschD1776
- 15Philipp LienhartD1783
- 8David AlabaD1872
- 16Phillipp MweneD1638
- 6Nicolas SeiwaldM1797
- 4Xaver SchlagerM1820
- 18Romano SchmidM~1717 provisional
- 20Konrad LaimerM2069
- 9Marcel SabitzerM1890
- 7Marko ArnautovićF~1589 provisional
8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Florian WiegeleG~1563 provisional
- 13Patrick PentzG~1579 provisional
- 2David AffengruberD1730
- 3Kevin DansoD1792
- 23Marco FriedlD~1635 provisional
- 25Michael SvobodaD~1577 provisional
- 10Florian GrillitschM1825
- 17Carney ChukwuemekaM1836
- 19Dejan LjubičićMunrated
- 22Alexander PrassD1702
- 24Paul WannerM1814
- 26Alessandro SchöpfM~1548 provisional
- 21Patrick WimmerM~1657 provisional
- 11Michael GregoritschF1639
- 14Saša KalajdžićF1587
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 01:21:10 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 28'M. Arnautovicgoalassist D. Alaba
- 45'R. Belghaligoal
- 46'M. Gregoritsch for M. Arnautovicsub
- 46'F. Grillitsch for X. Schlagersub
- 46'P. Wanner for R. Schmidsub
- 55'M. Sabitzergoalassist K. Laimer
- 60'R. Mahrezgoalassist H. Aouar
- 62'K. Danso for D. Alabasub
- 71'R. Ait-Nouri for J. Hadjamsub
- 71'Z. Belaid for A. Gouirisub
- 71'S. Chergui for R. Belghalisub
- 90+3'R. Mahrezgoalassist H. Aouar
- 90+4'F. Ghedjemis for H. Aouarsub
- 90+5'S. Kalajdzic for P. Mwenesub
- 90+6'S. Kalajdzicgoalassist M. Gregoritsch
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 04:59:38 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Algeria 3-3 Austria
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Honours even at 39%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Algeria 3-3 Austria: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Algeria +1 and Austria -1.
On our player board, the squads moved Algeria +42 (15 appearances) · Austria -25 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -21 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 35/26/39 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 39%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Algeria v Austria before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.