full time
Austria3–1Jordan
Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Austria to win
sealed Mon 15 Jun · 20:49 UTC · 22:49 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:49:12 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1891-15 this year
1906 → 1891 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
24thheld on the latest list
24th → 24th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1720-28 this year
1748 → 1720 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
63rdheld on the latest list
64th → 63rd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Austria by 171 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Austria took it.
1 prior meeting · Austria 1, drawn 0, Jordan 0 · goals 3-1
- 2026Austria 3-1 Jordan· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Austria the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +120 edge into 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Austria
1.5
expected goals
Jordan
1.1
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–011 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–09 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Austria 34 in 100, Jordan 22 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Austria win at home.✓ right
- No blowout: Austria win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Austria3-4-2-1
- 1Alexander SchlagerG~1530 provisional
- 5Stefan PoschD1776
- 15Philipp LienhartD1783
- 8David AlabaD1872
- 16Phillipp MweneM1638
- 4Xaver SchlagerM1820
- 6Nicolas SeiwaldM1797
- 20Konrad LaimerM2069
- 18Romano SchmidF~1717 provisional
- 9Marcel SabitzerF1890
- 14Saša KalajdžićF1587
9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Florian WiegeleG~1563 provisional
- 13Patrick PentzG~1579 provisional
- 2David AffengruberD1730
- 3Kevin DansoD1792
- 23Marco FriedlD~1635 provisional
- 25Michael SvobodaD~1577 provisional
- 10Florian GrillitschM1825
- 17Carney ChukwuemekaM1836
- 19Dejan LjubičićMunrated
- 22Alexander PrassD1702
- 24Paul WannerM1814
- 26Alessandro SchöpfM~1548 provisional
- 21Patrick WimmerM~1657 provisional
- 7Marko ArnautovićF~1589 provisional
- 11Michael GregoritschF1639
Jordan5-4-1
- 1Yazeed Abu LailaG~1470 provisional
- 23Ehsan HaddadD~1504 provisional
- 3Abdallah NasibD~1531 provisional
- 5Yazan Al-ArabD~1540 provisional
- 16Mo AbualnadiD~1509 provisional
- 20Mohannad Abu TahaD~1510 provisional
- 10Mousa TamariM~1649 provisional
- 21Nizar Al-RashdanM~1530 provisional
- 8Noor Al-Deen Al RawabdehM~1522 provisional
- 11Odeh FakhouryMunrated
- 9Ali OlwanF~1508 provisional
0 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Abdallah Al-FakhouriG~1516 provisional
- 12Noureddin ZaidG~1549 provisional
- 4Husam Ali Mohammad AbudahabDunrated
- 17Saleem ObaidD~1506 provisional
- 19Saad Al RousanDunrated
- 26Anas BadawiD~1549 provisional
- 18Mohammad Abu GhoushDunrated
- 2Mohammad Ali HasheeshD~1545 provisional
- 6Amer JamousM~1538 provisional
- 14Rajaei AyedM~1513 provisional
- 15Ibrahim SadehMunrated
- 25Mohammad Al DaoudM~1510 provisional
- 7Mohammad Abu ZrayqF~1548 provisional
- 13Mahmoud Al-MardiF~1498 provisional
- 24Ali Al AzaizahF~1488 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 03:20:52 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 21'R. Schmidgoalassist X. Schlager
- 46'M. Arnautovic for S. Kalajdzicsub
- 50'A. Olwangoalassist N. Al Rawabdeh
- 59'C. Chukwuemeka for X. Schlagersub
- 59'K. Danso for D. Alabasub
- 59'P. Wanner for P. Mwenesub
- 72'S. Obaid for M. Abualnadisub
- 76'Y. Al Arabgoal (o.g.)
- 81'S. Al Rosan for A. Nasibsub
- 81'M. Al Mardi for E. Haddadsub
- 83'P. Wimmer for R. Schmidsub
- 88'M. Al Daoud for M. Tamarisub
- 89'A. Azaizeh for O. Al Fakhourisub
- 90+12'M. Arnautovicgoal (pen)
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 07:21:16 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Austria 3-1 Jordan
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Austria to win at 50%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Austria 3-1 Jordan: the Austria win, an outcome we had at 50 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- No blowout: Austria win by a single goal at most, if at all.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Austria +24 and Jordan -24.
On our player board, the squads moved Austria +138 (16 appearances) · Jordan -101 (13 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +120 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 50/25/25 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Austria · 50%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Austria v Jordan before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.