Guillermo Varela

1845 full roster Elo (−5 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Uruguay's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1860

age curve at 32 (defences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-10

individual skill termour club xG models haven't seen enough of him for a confident read, so nothing is added, never guessed

+0

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1850

form: national-team results, 27 appearances2054 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

-5

full roster Elo · with results

1845

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-27. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1820the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×3.00

ageage 32, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year

×0.37

defender fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.58

individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide

×1.00

our estimate

≈ €5.1m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.