Finn Surman

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
22
sourced with the squad
position
Defence
New Zealand
our board
#1247
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
1612′
18 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
1.80
75th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Goals for New Zealand, on the record and counted.

goals
1
assists
0

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad: New Zealand · Defencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1555 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1539 full roster Elo (−16 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1547 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the defence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at New Zealand's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1557
age curve at 22 (defences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls: -15
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +13
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1555
form: national-team results, 18 appearances1612 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: -16
full roster Elo · with results: 1539

Where the +13 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 1.80 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 75th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(75.3th) = 46 × 0.68 × 0.4 (position weight) = +13

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-27. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#1247 of 1424 rated players on our board.
vs his seed
The folded nights have cost him 16 points off his seed, kept on the record, like everything.
workload
He barely leaves the pitch: 90′ a night across 18 folded appearances.

What he’d cost · our estimate

We don’t price him yet. Our fee model leans on the level he plays at, and no trusted source has given us his club’s strength. We’d rather show nothing than a number we don’t trust.

In our coverage · New Zealand’s record

v Belgium1–5Called it
v Egypt1–3Called it
at Iran2–2Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on New Zealand. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.