Elijah Just

1569 full roster Elo (−7 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1569 ±60 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the offence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at New Zealand's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1557

age curve at 25 (offences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-1

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+20

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1576

form: national-team results, 4 appearances346 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

-7

full roster Elo · with results

1569

Where the +20 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

2.50 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

81th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(80.5th) = 46 × 0.86 × 0.5 (position weight) = +20

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-27. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1390the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×0.69

ageage 25, in the fee-peak window (24–27)

×1.00

midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.90

individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide

×1.00

our estimate

≈ €5.1m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.