David Affengruber

1701 full roster Elo (+13 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1711 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the defence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Austria's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1660

age curve at 24 (defences' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior

-7

defensive actions in club football, possession-adjustedhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+35

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1688

form: national-team results, 36 appearances2953 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+13

full roster Elo · with results

1701

Where the +35 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

5.41 possession-adjusted defensive actions per 90 (tackles + interceptions + blocks)

his rank

97th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

recent club seasons (api-football), an individual box-stat proxy, possession-adjusted; volume, not a quality verdict

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(97.3th) = 46 × 1.92 × 0.4 (position weight) = +35

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-05-23. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1623the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×1.51

ageage 24, in the fee-peak window (24–27)

×1.00

defender fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.58

individual skillmeasured 97th percentile of peers

×1.49

our estimate

≈ €10m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.