full time
Scotland0–1Morocco
Gillette Stadium, Boston · 65,878 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Morocco to win
sealed Wed 17 Jun · 20:04 UTC · 22:04 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Wed, 17 Jun 2026 20:04:33 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1813+52 this year
1761 → 1813 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
42ndup 1 place on the latest list
36th → 42nd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2027+118 this year
1909 → 2027 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
7thup 1 place on the latest list
11th → 7th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Morocco by 214 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Morocco took it.
1 prior meeting · Scotland 0, drawn 0, Morocco 1 · goals 0-3
- 1998Scotland 0-3 Morocco· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Morocco the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -139 edge into 23% / 24% / 52% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Scotland
1.0
expected goals
Morocco
1.6
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–111 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–29 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Scotland 21 in 100, Morocco 35 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Morocco win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Morocco win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Scotland3-4-2-1
- 1Angus GunnG~1799 provisional
- 5Grant HanleyD~1550 provisional
- 13Jack HendryD1547
- 6Kieran TierneyD1583
- 22Nathan PattersonM1785
- 4Scott McTominayM1808
- 19Lewis FergusonM1725
- 3Andy RobertsonM1877
- 7John McGinnF2010
- 11Ryan ChristieF2012
- 10Che AdamsF1652
9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Liam KellyG~1558 provisional
- 21Craig GordonG~1516 provisional
- 2Aaron HickeyD1847
- 15John SouttarD~1601 provisional
- 16Dominic HyamD~1592 provisional
- 24Tony RalstonD~1583 provisional
- 26Scott McKennaD1566
- 8Tyler FletcherM~1866 provisional
- 23Kenny McLeanM~1553 provisional
- 17Ben Gannon-DoakF1870
- 25Findlay CurtisF~1540 provisional
- 9Lyndon DykesF~1536 provisional
- 14Ross StewartF~1648 provisional
- 18George HirstF~1673 provisional
- 20Lawrence ShanklandF~1592 provisional
Morocco4-2-3-1
- 1BonoG1773
- 2Achraf HakimiD2090
- 14Issa DiopD~1887 provisional
- 18Chadi RiadD~1889 provisional
- 3Noussair MazraouiD2005
- 24Neil El AynaouiM1903
- 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1866
- 10Brahim DíazM2052
- 8Azzedine OunahiM1857
- 23Bilal El KhannoussM1911
- 11Ismael SaibariF1987
9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Ahmed Reda TagnaoutiG~1599 provisional
- 12Munir El KajouiG~1603 provisional
- 26Anass Salah-EddineD1845
- 5Marwane SaadaneDunrated
- 25Redouane HalhalD~1628 provisional
- 19Youssef BelammariD~1619 provisional
- 13Zakaria El OuahdiD1672
- 17Amine SbaiFunrated
- 7Chemsdine TalbiF1831
- 16Gessime YassineF1750
- 15Samir El MourabetM~1839 provisional
- 4Sofyan AmrabatM1787
- 20Ayoub El KaabiF~1752 provisional
- 21Ayoube Amaimouni EchghouyabF~1733 provisional
- 9Soufiane RahimiF1677
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 19 Jun 2026 21:21:16 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 2'I. Saibarigoalassist B. Diaz
- 60'B. Gannon-Doak for K. Tierneysub
- 71'L. Dykes for C. Adamssub
- 71'K. McLean for R. Christiesub
- 84'S. Rahimi for I. Saibarisub
- 84'C. Talbi for B. El Khannousssub
- 84'A. Amaimouni for B. Diazsub
- 89'A. Ralston for N. Pattersonsub
- 89'R. Stewart for J. McGinnsub
- 90'S. El Mourabet for A. Ounahisub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:01:57 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Scotland 0-1 Morocco
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Morocco to win at 52%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Scotland 0-1 Morocco: the Morocco win, an outcome we had at 52 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Scotland -19 and Morocco +19.
On our player board, the squads moved Scotland -134 (16 appearances) · Morocco +126 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -139 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 23/24/52 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Morocco · 52%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Scotland v Morocco before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.