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Sat 27 Jun · 23:30 UTC · Sun 01:30 CEST · Group K

full time

Congo DR3–1Uzbekistan

1768+85rating1838+1946thfifa50th
Y. Wissa1901talismanA. Khusanov1915

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · 71,000 seats

Missed it. It stays up.

Honours even

home 37% ✓draw 26%away 38%

sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

DR Congo

ProofXI rating

1768+85 this year

1683 → 1768 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

46thheld on the latest list

56th → 46th · 6 lists

Uzbekistan

ProofXI rating

1838+19 this year

1819 → 1838 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

50thheld on the latest list

50th → 50th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Uzbekistan by 70 points

How we got hereWe make Uzbekistan the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Congo DR rating edge-5
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-5

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -5 edge into 37% / 26% / 38% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Congo DR

1.3

expected goals

Uzbekistan

1.3

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–19 in 100
  • 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–28 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Congo DR 27 in 100, Uzbekistan 27 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Congo DR and Uzbekistan share the points.✗ wrong
  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

DR Congo4-4-2

  1. 1Lionel Mpasi NzauG1584
  2. 2Aaron Wan-BissakaD1766
  3. 22Chancel MbembaD1714
  4. 4Axel TuanzebeD1681
  5. 26Arthur MasuakuD1551
  6. 7Nathanaël MbukuM1546
  7. 8Samuel MoutoussamyM1517
  8. 14Noah SadikiM1766
  9. 9Brian CipengaM1524
  10. 20Yoane WissaF1901
  11. 17Cédric BakambuF1741

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Uzbekistan3-4-2-1

  1. 12Abduvokhid NematovG1473
  2. 2Abdukodir KhusanovD1915
  3. 26Jakhongir UrozovD1514
  4. 5Rustam AshurmatovD1531
  5. 3Khozhiakbar AlizhonovM1538
  6. 6Akmal MozgovoyM1534
  7. 7Otabek ShukurovM1521
  8. 13Sherzod NasrullaevM1509
  9. 17Dostonbek KhamdamovF1522
  10. 22Abbosbek FayzullaevF1582
  11. 14Eldor ShomurodovF1596

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:58:53 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 10'E. Shomurodovgoalassist A. Mozgovoy
  2. 51'F. Mayele for C. Bakambusub
  3. 59'O. Khamrobekov for O. Shukurovsub
  4. 59'A. Ganiev for D. Khamdamovsub
  5. 68'Y. Wissagoal (pen)
  6. 72'T. Bongonda for B. Cipengasub
  7. 72'N. Mukau for S. Moutoussamysub
  8. 72'M. Elia for N. Mbukusub
  9. 73'O. Urunov for A. Fayzullaevsub
  10. 78'F. Mayelegoal
  11. 82'I. Sergeev for J. Urozovsub
  12. 82'J. Iskanderov for A. Mozgovoysub
  13. 83'J. Kayembe for A. Masuakusub
  14. 90+1'Y. Wissagoalassist M. Elia

source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 01:54:21 GMT

Full time

Missed it.

Congo DR 3-1 Uzbekistan

Verdict
wrong and wrong
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed Honours even at 38%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Congo DR 3-1 Uzbekistan: the Congo DR win, an outcome we had at 37 in 100.

The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Congo DR and Uzbekistan share the points.
  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Congo DR +46 and Uzbekistan -46.

On our player board, the squads moved Congo DR +171 (16 appearances) · Uzbekistan -190 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -5 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 37/26/38 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 38%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Congo DR v Uzbekistan before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.