full time
Jordan1–2Algeria
Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Algeria to win
sealed Sun 21 Jun · 19:20 UTC · 21:20 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Sun, 21 Jun 2026 19:20:47 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1780+36 this year
1744 → 1780 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
63rdheld on the latest list
64th → 63rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1857+40 this year
1817 → 1857 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
28thheld on the latest list
34th → 28th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Algeria by 77 points
Head to head
Algeria have had the better of this fixture.
3 prior meetings · Jordan 0, drawn 1, Algeria 2 · goals 2-9
- 2026Jordan 1-2 Algeria· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2004Algeria 1-1 Jordan· Friendly
- 1974Algeria 6-0 Jordan· Kuneitra Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Algeria the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -124 edge into 25% / 25% / 51% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Jordan
1.1
expected goals
Algeria
1.5
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–111 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–29 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Jordan 22 in 100, Algeria 34 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Algeria win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Algeria win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Jordan3-4-2-1
- 1Yazeed Abu LailaG1479
- 3Abdallah NasibD1526
- 5Yazan Al-ArabD1534
- 4Husam Ali Mohammad AbudahabDunrated
- 23Ehsan HaddadM1547
- 21Nizar Al-RashdanM1528
- 8Noor Al-RawabdehM1536
- 20Mohannad Abu TahaM1521
- 13Mahmoud Al-MardiF1526
- 9Ali OlwanF1507
- 10Mousa TamariF1609
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Noureddin ZaidG~1549 provisional
- 22Abdallah Al-FakhouriG1514
- 16Mo AbualnadiD1504
- 2Mohammad Ali HasheeshD~1545 provisional
- 17Saleem ObaidD1501
- 19Saad Al RousanDunrated
- 26Anas BadawiD~1549 provisional
- 18Mohammad Abu GhoushDunrated
- 6Amer JamousM1553
- 14Rajaei AyedM1519
- 15Ibrahim SadehMunrated
- 25Mohammad Al DaoudM~1510 provisional
- 7Mohammad Abu ZrayqF1549
- 24Ali Al AzaizahF1497
- 11Odeh FakhouryFunrated
Algeria4-3-3
- 23Luca ZidaneG1566
- 17Rafik BelghaliD1582
- 2Aïssa MandiD1742
- 21Ramy BensebainiD1867
- 15Rayan Aït-NouriD1962
- 14Hicham BoudaouiM1652
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM1656
- 22Ibrahim MazaM1873
- 7Riyad MahrezF1636
- 9Amine GouiriF1779
- 10Farès ChaïbiF1723
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Melvin MastilG~1563 provisional
- 16Oussama BenbotG1571
- 3Achref AbadaD1594
- 4Mohamed TougaiD1578
- 5Zineddine BelaidD1612
- 13Jaouen HadjamD1599
- 26Samir Sophian CherguiD1713
- 8Houssem AouarM1614
- 19Nabil BentalebM1764
- 24Yassine TitraouiM1594
- 11Anis Hadj MoussaF1683
- 20Adil BoulbinaF1579
- 12Ahmed Nadhir BenboualiF1584
- 25Farès GhedjemisF1568
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 02:32:34 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 36'N. Al Rashdangoalassist M. Tamari
- 46'N. Bentaleb for R. Zerroukisub
- 46'N. Benbouali for H. Boudaouisub
- 69'N. Benboualigoalassist R. Mahrez
- 76'A. Hadj Moussa for R. Mahrezsub
- 76'O. Al Fakhouri for M. Al Mardisub
- 82'A. Gouirigoal
- 84'A. Azaizeh for M. Tamarisub
- 85'M. Abu Hasheesh for M. Abu Tahasub
- 85'J. Hadjam for R. Ait-Nourisub
- 86'Z. Belaid for A. Gouirisub
- 90+1'S. Obaid for H. Abu Dahabsub
- 90+2'Shararh for A. Olwansub
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 07:12:47 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Jordan 1-2 Algeria
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Algeria to win at 51%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Jordan 1-2 Algeria: the Algeria win, an outcome we had at 51 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Jordan -17 and Algeria +17.
On our player board, the squads moved Jordan -67 (13 appearances) · Algeria +96 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -124 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 25/25/51 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Algeria · 51%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Jordan v Algeria before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.