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Wed 24 Jun · 22:00 UTC · Thu 00:00 CEST · Group C

full time

Morocco4–2Haiti

1984+81rating1684-257thup 1fifa83rd
A. Hakimi2043talismanW. Isidor1839

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · 71,000 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Morocco to win

home 71% ✓draw 19%away 10%

sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:46:42 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Morocco

ProofXI rating

1984+81 this year

1903 → 1984 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

7thup 1 place on the latest list

11th → 7th · 6 lists

Haiti

ProofXI rating

1684-25 this year

1709 → 1684 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

83rdheld on the latest list

84th → 83rd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Morocco by 300 points

How we got hereWe make Morocco the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Morocco rating edge+341
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+341

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +341 edge into 71% / 19% / 10% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Morocco

1.9

expected goals

Haiti

0.7

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–013 in 100
  • 2–013 in 100
  • 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–19 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Morocco 49 in 100, Haiti 15 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Morocco win at home.✓ right
  • Morocco win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • Morocco keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Morocco4-2-3-1

  1. 1Yassine BounouG1678
  2. 2Achraf HakimiD2043
  3. 25Redouane HalhalD1604
  4. 18Chadi RiadD1875
  5. 26Anass Salah-EddineD1839
  6. 4Sofyan AmrabatM1827
  7. 24Neil El AynaouiM1916
  8. 10Brahim DíazM1982
  9. 11Ismael SaibariM1877
  10. 23Bilal El KhannoussM1910
  11. 20Ayoub El KaabiF1714

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Haiti4-4-2

  1. 1Johny PlacideG1479
  2. 22Jean-Kévin DuverneD1582
  3. 4Ricardo AdéD1603
  4. 5Hannes DelcroixD1535
  5. 8Martin ExpérienceD1526
  6. 21Josué CasimirM1500
  7. 17Danley Jean JacquesM1505
  8. 10Jean-Ricner BellegardeM1673
  9. 15Ruben ProvidenceM1511
  10. 18Wilson IsidorF1839
  11. 16Lenny JosephF1510

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:19 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 10'Bonogoal (o.g.)
  2. 39'A. Hakimigoal
  3. 43'W. Isidorgoalassist J. Duverne
  4. 45+1'I. Saibarigoalassist A. Hakimi
  5. 67'D. Nazon for R. Providencesub
  6. 67'L. Deedson for W. Isidorsub
  7. 70'A. Ounahi for B. Diazsub
  8. 70'S. Rahimi for I. Saibarisub
  9. 70'G. Yassine for A. El Kaabisub
  10. 78'S. Rahimigoalassist C. Riad
  11. 80'C. Arcus for J. Duvernesub
  12. 80'D. Simon for D. Jean Jacquessub
  13. 83'N. Mazraoui for A. Salah-Eddinesub
  14. 83'S. El Mourabet for N. El Aynaouisub
  15. 83'F. Pierrot for L. Josephsub
  16. 89'G. Yassinegoalassist S. Rahimi

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:06:00 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Morocco 4-2 Haiti

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Morocco to win at 71%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Morocco 4-2 Haiti: the Morocco win, an outcome we had at 71 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Morocco keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Morocco +11 and Haiti -11.

On our player board, the squads moved Morocco +87 (16 appearances) · Haiti -91 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +341 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 71/19/10 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Morocco · 71%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Morocco v Haiti before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.