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Wed 24 Jun · 19:00 UTC · 21:00 CEST · Group B

full time

Bosnia-Herzegovina3–1Qatar

1643+68rating1569-6264thup 1fifa56thdown 1
E. Demirovic1771talismanEdmilson Junior1615

Lumen Field, Seattle · 68,740 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Bosnia-Herzegovina to win

home 45% ✓draw 25%away 29%

sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:46:42 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

ProofXI rating

1643+68 this year

1575 → 1643 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

64thup 1 place on the latest list

71st → 64th · 6 lists

Qatar

ProofXI rating

1569-62 this year

1631 → 1569 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

56thdown 1 place on the latest list

54th → 56th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Bosnia & Herzegovina by 74 points

Head to head

Qatar have had the better of this fixture.

2 prior meetings · Bosnia-Herzegovina 0, drawn 1, Qatar 1 · goals 1-3

  1. 2010Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Qatar· Friendly
  2. 2000Qatar 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Bosnia-Herzegovina the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Bosnia-Herzegovina rating edge+74
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+74

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +74 edge into 45% / 25% / 29% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1.4

expected goals

Qatar

1.2

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–010 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–08 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Bosnia-Herzegovina 31 in 100, Qatar 24 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Bosnia-Herzegovina win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: Bosnia-Herzegovina win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Bosnia & Herzegovina4-4-2

  1. 1Nikola VasiljG1559
  2. 24Arjan MalićDunrated
  3. 18Nikola KatićD1581
  4. 21Stjepan RadeljićD1581
  5. 5Sead KolašinacD1728
  6. 20Esmir BajraktarevićM1755
  7. 13Ivan BašićM1581
  8. 14Ivan ŠunjićM1609
  9. 19Kerim AlajbegovićM1597
  10. 10Ermedin DemirovićF1771
  11. 11Edin DžekoF1516

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Qatar4-3-3

  1. 1Mahmud AbunadaG1461
  2. 2Pedro MiguelD1530
  3. 16Boualem KhoukhiD1549
  4. 4Issa LayeD1501
  5. 18Sultan Al-BrakeD1502
  6. 5Jassem Gaber AbdulsallamM1506
  7. 20Ahmed FathiM1466
  8. 12Karim BoudiafM1485
  9. 8Edmilson JuniorF1615
  10. 11Akram AfifF1643
  11. 10Hassan Al HaydosF1546

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:19 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 29'K. Alajbegovicgoalassist I. Basic
  2. 34'M. Abunadagoal (o.g.)
  3. 42'H. Al Haydosgoalassist Edmilson Junior
  4. 46'B. Tahirovic for I. Sunjicsub
  5. 46'A. Memic for A. Malicsub
  6. 46'A. Hatem for J. Gabersub
  7. 56'A. Al Ganehi for H. Al Haydossub
  8. 63'D. Hadzikadunic for N. Katicsub
  9. 64'E. Mahmic for E. Dzekosub
  10. 72'A. Ali for K. Boudiafsub
  11. 79'A. Alaaeldin for Edmilson Juniorsub
  12. 79'M. Al Mannai for A. Fathisub
  13. 80'E. Mahmicgoalassist D. Hadzikadunic
  14. 82'D. Burnic for K. Alajbegovicsub

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:24 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 45%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar: the Bosnia-Herzegovina win, an outcome we had at 45 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • No blowout: Bosnia-Herzegovina win by a single goal at most, if at all.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Bosnia-Herzegovina +36 and Qatar -36.

On our player board, the squads moved Bosnia-Herzegovina +144 (15 appearances) · Qatar -179 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +74 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 45/25/29 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Bosnia-Herzegovina · 45%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Bosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.