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Thu 18 Jun · 19:00 UTC · 21:00 CEST · Group B

full time

Switzerland4–1Bosnia-Herzegovina

1962+77rating1643+6819thfifa64thup 1
M. Akanji1925talismanE. Demirovic1771

SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · 70,240 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Switzerland to win

home 65% ✓draw 21%away 14%

sealed Tue 16 Jun · 16:20 UTC · 18:20 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Tue, 16 Jun 2026 16:20:55 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Switzerland

ProofXI rating

1962+77 this year

1885 → 1962 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

19thheld on the latest list

17th → 19th · 6 lists

Bosnia & Herzegovina

ProofXI rating

1643+68 this year

1575 → 1643 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

64thup 1 place on the latest list

71st → 64th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Switzerland by 319 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and Bosnia-Herzegovina took it.

1 prior meeting · Switzerland 0, drawn 0, Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 · goals 0-2

  1. 2016Switzerland 0-2 Bosnia and Herzegovina· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Switzerland the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Switzerland rating edge+264
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+264

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +264 edge into 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Switzerland

1.8

expected goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0.8

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–012 in 100
  • 2–012 in 100
  • 1–112 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–110 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Switzerland 44 in 100, Bosnia-Herzegovina 17 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Switzerland win at home.✓ right
  • Switzerland win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • Switzerland keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Switzerland4-3-3

  1. 1Gregor KobelG1947
  2. 3Silvan WidmerD1788
  3. 4Nico ElvediD1728
  4. 5Manuel AkanjiD1925
  5. 13Ricardo RodríguezD1763
  6. 20Michel AebischerM1545
  7. 10Granit XhakaM1792
  8. 8Remo FreulerM1726
  9. 22Fabian RiederF1756
  10. 7Breel EmboloF1873
  11. 11Dan NdoyeF1919

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Bosnia & Herzegovina4-4-2

  1. 1Nikola VasiljG1559
  2. 7Amar DedićD1784
  3. 4Tarik MuharemovićD1599
  4. 18Nikola KatićD1581
  5. 5Sead KolašinacD1728
  6. 15Amar MemićM1587
  7. 6Benjamin TahirovićM1573
  8. 14Ivan ŠunjićM1609
  9. 19Kerim AlajbegovićM1597
  10. 10Ermedin DemirovićF1771
  11. 11Edin DžekoF1516

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 18:26:27 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 63'I. Basic for B. Tahirovicsub
  2. 64'E. Bajraktarevic for E. Dzekosub
  3. 71'J. Manzambi for D. Ndoyesub
  4. 71'R. Vargas for F. Riedersub
  5. 71'D. Sow for M. Aebischersub
  6. 74'J. Manzambigoal
  7. 84'R. Vargasgoalassist B. Embolo
  8. 86'J. Lukic for E. Demirovicsub
  9. 86'A. Hadziahmetovic for I. Sunjicsub
  10. 86'L. Jaquez for S. Widmersub
  11. 89'C. Itten for B. Embolosub
  12. 90'J. Manzambigoalassist R. Vargas
  13. 90+1'E. Mahmic for K. Alajbegovicsub
  14. 90+3'E. Mahmicgoal
  15. 90+7'G. Xhakagoal (pen)

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:20:32 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Switzerland to win at 65%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina: the Switzerland win, an outcome we had at 65 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Switzerland keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Switzerland +19 and Bosnia-Herzegovina -19.

On our player board, the squads moved Switzerland +76 (16 appearances) · Bosnia-Herzegovina -135 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +264 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 65/21/14 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Switzerland · 65%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Switzerland v Bosnia-Herzegovina before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.